PETALING JAYA: Automobile sales may rise in the fourth quarter of 2025 (4Q25) compared to 3Q25 as consumers rush to buy imported electric vehicles (EVs) ahead of the expiry of the tax exemption for such models at the end of this year, says CIMB Securities.
The brokerage, which has maintained a “neutral” rating on automotive stocks, said sales would also be supported by the launch of new Proton and Perodua models despite total industry volume (TIV) declining in November on a month-on-month basis after record passenger- and -commercial vehicle sales in October.
It highlighted two automotive stocks under coverage with “buy” calls – HI Mobility Bhd
, with a target price (TP) of RM3.10 and Sime Darby Bhd, with TP of RM2.24.
It expects HI Mobility to achieve a three-year core net profit on compound annual growth rate (CAGR) basis of 26.3% driven by higher cross-border traffic, new capacity expansion, and earnings-accretive acquisition while projecting three-year core net profit CAGR of 7.1% for Sime Darby driven by recovery in its industrial segment, sustained contributions from UMW Holdings Bhd, and improved cost control in the motors division.
“We project a 5% quarter-on-quarter increase in sales volume in 4Q25, supported by new model launches from national brands and last-minute completely built-up (CBU) EV purchases,” it said, noting that Proton has reportedly secured over 30,000 bookings for its 2026 Saga MC3 model within two weeks of launch.
Other national models launched recently include Perodua’s first EV, the QV-E in the beginning of this month, followed by the Trax sport utility vehicle on Dec 17. “Collectively, we expect these new model launches to support near-term demand and provide a positive carryover effect into 2026,” it said.
While demand for national models would remain resilient next year, it expects TIV to decline 2% year-on-year to 774,000 units from 790,000 this year on weaker consumer sentiment amid inflationary pressures, higher prices for CBU EVs, intense competition from Chinese automobile firms, as well as a potential revision of the open market value (OMV) calculation methodology that would raise excise duties.
The OMV methodology has been deferred by another six months to next July from January. This policy would have more of an impact on firms with higher exposure to locally assembled vehicles but would benefit Japanese and European marques.
