KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to expand by 4.6 per cent in 2026, supported by improving external demand despite a slight moderation in domestic activity, said CGS International Securities Malaysia Sdn Bhd.
In a report, the research house said that after a brief United States-China trade truce, external demand may improve further, reducing supply chain disruptions and sustaining Malaysia’s GDP growth.
CGS International said the positive but modest outlook for 2026 is tempered by several risks on the horizon.
"The US reciprocal tariff, after a year of deliberations, is slated to take effect next year, posing risks to supply chains.
"Similarly, the US sectoral tariff, which is widely expected soon, may land the global economy in yet another tailspin,” it said.
Furthermore, it noted that China continues to contend with subdued economic momentum, as its weakening property market has yet to stabilise.
"New risks are emerging in the financial markets, including technology stock repricing and yen carry-trade unwinding, with the potential for spillover to the real economy.
"Combined, we think these threats could ultimately set the stage for a wave of volatility and a prolonged period of weakness next year,” CGS International said.
Meanwhile, for Indonesia, the firm has raised its 2026 growth forecast to 5.1 per cent, citing expectations of a recovery supported by proactive government stimulus.
As for Singapore, CGS International said its GDP is expected to expand 2.8 per cent in 2026, weighed by softer growth among key trading partners.
For Thailand, the research house expects a mild 1.9 per cent growth in 2026, as major investments are likely to be delayed until after the general election in the second half of next year. - Bernama
