BOSTON: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins says that she’s still leaning against the US central bank cutting its interest rate target next month as it faces ongoing risks to both its inflation and job mandates.
“I do see reasons to be hesitant” about lowering the cost of short-term borrowing at the Dec 9 and 10 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
“My own view is that policy is currently in the kind of mildly restrictive range after the 50-basis-point easing that we did in September and October, and that’s appropriate” given the current state of the economy, Collins told reporters last Saturday at a conference at her bank.
The challenge for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) right now is that it faces ongoing risks created by above-target inflation while at the same time the job market is softening, she said.
For monetary policy, “I see risks on both sides and it’s really about balancing those risks.”
Collins was asked if she was willing to dissent against a rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting, which is likely to be unusually fractious for a committee that typically sees policymakers set policy by clear consensus.
She said she has not decided what she wants the Fed to do at the meeting and would like to see more data before making a call.
Over recent days, a wide range of officials have staked out positions on whether the Fed should cut what is now a 3.75% to 4% federal funds rate target range by a quarter-percentage-point.
The Fed’s other two rate cuts were driven by officials’ desire to support a softening job market while still keeping interest rate policy in a place where it can depress inflation that continues to overshoot the Fed’s 2% target.
Fed officials are also moving toward the meeting with a dearth of the data they usually rely on to set monetary policy, with the government shutdown only recently resolved.
A substantial number of policymakers have been against cutting rates amid ongoing inflation concerns.
Some of the gravity on that internal debate shifted last Friday with a speech by New York Fed leader John Williams, who said, “I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral.”
That caused futures markets to increase what had been declining odds of a near-term easing.
Some on the Fed have prepared observers to see an unusual level of formal disagreement at the FOMC meeting.
For those who have accused the Fed of groupthink when it comes to setting policy, “get ready: You might see the least groupthink you’ve seen from the FOMC in a long time,” Fed governor Christopher Waller said last Monday.
Collins told reporters “we’re in a complex period” for setting monetary policy.
“I think having a range of views is important, and I think there are some periods where there’s, you know, more of a range. If we all thought exactly the same thing, I think that would be, would be problematic.”
The Boston Fed bank president also said in her comments to the press that her outlook for the future of the economy is relatively benign, with unemployment rising a bit, and inflation pressures eventually moderating from current levels.
She added that financial conditions are putting some wind at the economy’s back.
Collins also explained what could alter her view on the right path for interest rate policy. “Looking at both sides of the mandate, there are risks on the employment side, and certainly, if I saw more evidence of more softening and weakness, I would take that seriously.” — Reuters
