KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Treasury & Markets Research expects Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to maintain the overnight policy rate (OPR) at 2.75 per cent in its final Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Nov 6, underpinned by robust macroeconomic indicators.
In a research note, the investment bank said that although an early-2026 rate cut remains possible, it hinges on two key indicators - persistent weakness in non-electrical and electronic (E&E) exports and a moderation in business and working capital credit growth - which, if sustained, could justify a 25-basis-point easing in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q 2026).
"Given the strong 3Q 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) print, we maintain our 2025 growth forecast at 4.3 per cent, with the 2026 forecast at 4.1 per cent, anchored by resilient private consumption supported by firm labour market conditions, civil service wage adjustments, and targeted cash programme.
"Additional impetus will come from tourism under Visit Malaysia Year 2026, which targets 47 million tourist arrivals,” it said.
According to the Investment, Trade and Industry Ministry (MITI), Malaysia’s trade continued to show resilience in September 2025, growing by 9.8 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM257.51 billion, reversing the previous month’s contraction amid global trade uncertainties.
MITI said export growth remained robust for the third consecutive month, rising 12.2 per cent y-o-y to RM138.68 billion, while imports rebounded by 7.3 per cent to RM118.82 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of RM19.86 billion.
The ministry said September’s export growth was recorded across all sectors, with expansion in the manufacturing sector led by E&E products, which registered their highest value, rising by nearly RM11 billion.
Meanwhile, CIMB IB noted that inflation is expected to remain modest, with the first nine months of 2025 at 1.4 per cent (2025: 1.5 per cent; 2026: 2.0 per cent), and monetary policy conditions expected to remain accommodative.
Looking ahead, private consumption in 2026 is expected to remain resilient, supported by a robust labour market, civil service pay adjustments, and targeted Sumbangan Tunai Rahmah (STR) and Sumbangan Asas Rahmah (SARA) programmes amounting to RM15 billion.
"Additionally, the Visit Malaysia Year 2026 campaign, which targets 47 million visitors, should provide a further boost to domestic demand and services activity,” it added. - Bernama
