Growth ambitions: Women pull a trailer loaded with scrap metal in Hanoi. The ambitious GDP target is supported by institutional reforms, increased public investment, rising labour productivity, and effective use of FDI shifting into Vietnam. — AFP
HANOI: At the 2026 Business Forum themed Opportunities and Strategies of gross domestic product (GDP) growth, experts highlighted that Vietnam’s economy is aligning with several favourable conditions to make the ambitious target of double-digit GDP growth increasingly feasible.
At the forum, organised by Bizlive on Oct 22, Huynh Minh Tuan, founder of FIDT Investment Consulting and Asset Management JSC (FIDT) and vice-chairman of APG Securities, emphasised that Vietnam is entering a new growth cycle, targeting an average GDP growth rate of 10% per year during the 2026 to 2030 period.
According to Tuan, Vietnam’s economy has experienced three distinct phases over the past few decades, including stable growth at 6.5% to 7% annually during 2015 to 2019; and a significant slowdown due to the Covid-19 pandemic, with GDP growth dropping to 2.9% in 2020 and 2.6% in 2021.
During the 2022 to 2024 period, Vietnam saw a strong recovery, with GDP growth rebounding to 8% in 2022 and 7.1% in 2024, and projected at 8.5% in 2025.
Looking ahead, from 2026 to 2030, the nation is projected to enter a high-growth phase, aiming for 10% annual GDP growth.
This ambitious target is supported by institutional reforms, increased public investment, rising labour productivity, and effective use of foreign direct investment (FDI) shifting into Vietnam, Tuan said.
He noted that Vietnam has several advantages, such as improved investment transparency, flexible governance policies, and strengthening trade relationships with major partners – especially with the United States.
A large-scale public investment plan for 2025 to 2030 is expected to serve as a catalyst for growth across key sectors such as infrastructure, manufacturing, logistics, and renewable energy.
The private sector is also recognised as a central growth engine.
In 2025, several pivotal resolutions have been issued to expand opportunities for private enterprises and startups.
Among them, Resolution 68-NQ/TW affirmed the private sector as a key driver of economic development.
It aims to establish two million efficient enterprises by 2030, with at least 20 reaching global stature.
This resolution emphasises institutional reform, a better investment environment, and stronger linkages among private firms, FDI companies, and state-owned enterprises.
Subsequently, the National Assembly and government enacted specific policies through Resolution 198/2025/QH15 and Resolution 138/NQ-CP, including corporate income tax exemptions for the first two years and a 50% tax reduction for the next four years for innovative startups.
The policies also include the creation of the Vietnam Private Enterprise Development Fund and the expansion of green credit channels to support enterprise funding.
Meanwhile, Resolutions 139/NQ-CP and 57-NQ/TW focus on workforce training, supporting industries, digital transformation and the start-up ecosystem – key to boosting productivity, competitiveness, and global integration.
The FIDT representative said that with strategic execution in institutional reform, energy transition, digital technology adoption, and deeper global integration, the country could realise its 10% GDP growth target and join Asia’s most dynamic economies.
VPBankS digital business director Nguyen Viet Duc referenced the IMF’s September forecast, which projects Vietnam’s GDP growth at 6.5% to 6.7% – a figure based on conventional fiscal and monetary policy assumptions.
He pointed out that the government has set higher targets, with the State Bank aiming for 16% to 17% credit growth.
For the remainder of 2025, Duc expects credit growth to rise to as much as 19%, supported by a stronger monetary push and major public investment disbursement.
The early conclusion of a reciprocal tariff agreement with the United States is already driving export performance beyond expectations.
While many experts predicted a 10% drop in exports for 2025, actual figures are showing a 17% increase – significantly boosting GDP.
Duc said: “Vietnam has done remarkably well this year, but 2026 might not be as strong.
“We should approach it with some caution.”
He explained that export growth has started slowing in recent months, and corresponding tax revenues are beginning to decline.
Meanwhile, credit growth is expected to moderate to around 16%.
Public investment, however, will remain a strong driver, with an expected increase of 32% to 33% – supported by Vietnam’s still-manageable public debt levels currently rising by just 32%, lower than in most emerging markets.
He also noted that upcoming reforms in digital currency and crypto asset regulation could provide new economic momentum.
The digital economy is increasingly seen as a key driver of future growth.
Among the areas gaining traction are crypto assets.
Nghiem Minh Hoang, economic-financial expert at the Vietnam Blockchain and Digital Assets Association (VBA), shared that digital assets and Resolution 05 are among the most closely watched developments heading into 2026.
VBA has long advocated collaboration with regulatory agencies.
However, as the pilot implementation of Resolution 05 nears, the association is taking a more cautious stance.
The resolution outlines a framework for four key stakeholder groups: crypto-asset exchange operators, regulators, domestic and foreign investors and token issuers. — Viet Nam News/ANN
