KUALA LUMPUR: The Malaysian Palm Oil Council said on Tuesday that crude palm oil prices will hold steady above RM4,400 per metric ton heading into 2026, supported by biodiesel demand and uncertainty over stocks available for export.
Tightening supply of soybean oil from Argentina and concern over the impact on stocks of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel mandate will support palm prices, the Council said in a statement.
However, it said sentiment remained cautious due to weak crude oil prices, high vegetable oil stocks in major markets such as China and India, the U.S.-China trade war and a build-up of soybean stocks.
The Council said there has been an increase in U.S. soybean stocks since the harvest began there last month, as China has suspended imports of U.S. soybeans in May and is now buying mainly from South America.
"Although stronger domestic crushing activity and higher soybean oil consumption in the U.S. are expected under the 45Z biofuel policy in 2026, which prioritises domestically produced feedstock, these factors are insufficient to offset the sharp decline in exports to China," it said.
It also said that global vegetable oil demand in the coming season will rely heavily on sunflower oil, as exportable supplies of soybean oil from the U.S. and Brazil are expected to decline by 41% from 2.7 million tons in 2024/25 to 1.6 million tons in 2025/26 due to domestic biofuel demand.
The Council noted that palm oil was once again trading at a premium to soybean oil in the global market, having traded at a discount between April and September. It said that in mid-October palm oil prices were $42 and $26 per ton higher than soybean oil in Europe and India, respectively. - Reuters
