PETALING JAYA: Kenanga Research estimates that national marques will expand their market dominance to 64% of 2025 total industry volume (TIV) compared with 58% in 2022.
The research house attributed this to increasing demand for affordable vehicles, displacing the non-nationals marques’ market share on which their target focus is mostly in the RM100,000 and above vehicle segment.
“If the intense competition further ramps up with mass localisation of foreign brands and as the market becomes more fragmented, the challenging outlook for non-national brands could persist into 2026,” the research house noted.
BYD Company Ltd has unveiled its plan for electric vehicle (EV) production in Tanjong Malim, Perak in late 2026 and Chery has developed a large-scale Chery Smart Auto Industrial Park in Selangor while TQ-Wuling Bingo is looking to go into semi knocked-down of its vehicles.
“Our 20Y25 TIV forecast is 805,000 units driven by strong sustained demand in the affordable segment, fuel subsidies being expanded to all Malaysians which partly remove the uncertainty in the mid-market segment.
“There is still intense pricing competition from Chinese brands which are flooding the market with attractive and value-for-money new models.
“We expect Perusahaan Otomobil Kedua Sdn Bhd (Perodua) to benefit the most at 44% TIV market share with the highest localisation rate, attractive new launches –hybrid, EV and the all-new Myvi.
“Higher government servant salaries since December 2024, increased minimum wages from February 2025 as well as a stable labour market will also play a part,” Kenanga Research said.
The research house expected gradual transition to battery electric vehicles which currently enjoy sales and service tax exemption and other EV facilities incentives up until 2025 for imported completely built-up and 2027 for completely knocked down vehicles. “We also have a nuanced view of EV adoption eventually picking up and petrol demand will eventually peak.
“We do not think that will happen in the next five years due to infrastructure challenges,” it said.
Notwithstanding, with the recent announcement on cheaper RON95 petrol price for all Malaysians, Kenanga Research expected positive sentiment for Bermaz Auto Bhd
which has been on a gradual transition towards EVs as its Mazda brand still forms the largest unit sales of its vehicles, despite having the Xpeng EV brand in its line-up.
