ALL too soon, another upheaval is looming for the semiconductor sector.
On Thursday, US president Donald Trump sent shockwaves through the industry, threatening a 100% tariff on “chips and semiconductors” imports – but not for companies that are “building or have committed to build in the US”. And the reaction from our players was as expected.
“If the United States really goes ahead with the 100% tariff, our semiconductor foreign direct investment will be severely impacted,” QES Group Bhd
managing director and president Chew Ne Weng tells StarBiz 7.
QES, an automated test equipment (ATE) player, generates about 40% of its revenue from multinational corporations (MNCs) in the United States, Europe, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea along with about 5% from local and Chinese outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (Osat) clients.
Chew says affected companies will likely only ship products meant for the US market to the United States, with the balance redirected to other intended countries to avoid the 100% tariffs. Currently, US MNCs operating manufacturing sites across multiple countries will consolidate their inventory in the United States for global distribution.
“Semiconductor MNCs and even local Osats will have to re-plan their expansion strategies, which will affect the ecosystem of ATE players,” he says.
Chew adds these changes will take time – at least three years – to move production to the United States. “Hopefully, this will ease the immediate impact and allow for a more gradual shift, with the hope that Trump’s reign will end by 2028,” he says.
For QES, it may have to re-strategise by localising its manufacturing strategy with a “made in US for US” and “made in China for China” approach.
However, for now it is business as usual as the group’s exposure to the US market is very minimal, at less than 3% of total revenue.
“We will not rush to set up a manufacturing site in the United States and will monitor the situation over the next 12 months or so. The group will also explore options with our US-based joint venture partner, Applied Engineering Inc, to mitigate the impact from tariffs,” he says.
Trump’s 100% tariff salvo came barely a week after Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry (Miti) Minister Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Abdul Aziz confirmed that local semiconductor exports to the United States will remain exempted from the 19% reciprocal tariffs it imposed on Malaysia.
Tengku Zafrul stressed the exemptions are conditional and could change depending on Washington’s evolving policies – particularly the outcome of the ongoing Section 232 investigation, which was initially expected to conclude in December.
Section 232 allows Trump to impose tariffs on foreign products in the interest of national security.
Although the proposed 100% duties cannot be enacted until this investigation is completed, Trump’s latest warning suggests that a decision may be reached sooner than originally anticipated.
Malaysia exported RM119bil worth of electrical and electronics products to the United States in 2024, with semiconductors alone accounting for RM60.6bil. Of those semiconductor exports, 68% came from American companies based in Malaysia. The country also supplies around 25% of the United States’ semiconductor test and assembly needs.
Other local semiconductor businesses believe it is too early to tell how the punitive tariffs will affect their operations.
Mi Technovation founder and group chief executive officer Oh Kuang Eng says the company is gathering feedback from its customers.
“At this stage, we do not anticipate any changes and will continue with our expansion as planned. We will closely monitor developments over the next couple of weeks,” he says.
Oh maintains that given the group’s minimal trade exposure to the United States, at around 1% of its business, the impact from the potential 100% tariffs on the sector “would not be significant”.
Another semiconductor company, speaking on the condition of anonymity, says the 100% tariff will “certainly impact capital expenditure (capex) planning, overall business and the entire semiconductor industry”.
The firm says it is business as usual as the impact will mainly be on its customers who have yet to take any action. It remains hopeful that tariff exemptions may be granted based on Harmonised System (HS) code classifications when exporting goods to the United States.
“We are taking a prudent yet forward-looking approach. We are proceeding with strategic capital investments, especially in areas backed by committed demand or long-term agreements.
“At the same time, we are actively exploring alternative material sources, strengthening regional supplier partnerships, and engaging with key stakeholders to reinforce the resilience of our supply chain,” it adds.
HS codes are special numbers used by customs to identify what type of product you are trading.
At this stage, key details like whether the tariff on the sector will apply to the product, component, company or country level, remain unknown. It is also unclear which products or HS codes count as “semiconductors and chips” under the new tariff, or how derivative products (such as electronics containing chips) will be treated.
Some experts view the 100% tariff as more posturing than enforceable policy to accelerate reshoring efforts back to the United States.
Looking at the present carve-outs, it does suggest the tariff ruling is likely to be on a company-by-company basis rather than a blanket tariff rate.
“Nobody knows the impact as of today. Firstly, it is subject to the category of semiconductor products. Bear in mind, Malaysia does not fabricate any chips and sell them to the United States,” Public Investment Bank Research senior analyst Chong Hoe Leong says.
Chong says relocation due to the tariffs is “highly unlikely” for Malaysian players due to the high set-up and operating costs.
On the other hand, RHB Research senior analyst Lee Meng Horng says the majority of Malaysian-listed semiconductor and technology supply chain companies do not directly export integrated circuits, components or equipment to the United States, thus limiting their direct exposure to the proposed tariffs.
“Most of the listed players (except for a few with high customer concentration) have direct US exposure of less than 10%, if any,” he says.
That said, Lee is of the view that a full-scale tariff implementation could disrupt global trade flows. With the United States accounting for roughly 10% to 15% of global semiconductor demand, he says a worst-case scenario involving aggressive onshoring could pose some substitution risks for Asian manufacturing bases.
However, he opines that while the trend of onshoring advanced semiconductor activities (like design, research and development, and front-end wafer fabrication) to the United States is already underway, it is unlikely to be the same for back-end semiconductor processes.
According to Lee, the latter, which account for less than 30% of the total value chain and typically operate at lower margins, are unlikely to be fully onshored due to their lower economic returns and scale-dependent nature.
Moreover, Phillip Nova senior analyst Danish Lim says equipment makers would feel the pain indirectly via second order effects should the 100% tariff be imposed. He highlights that in the worst-case scenario, Osats shipping to US customers could see margins take a hit unless customers absorb tariffs or relocate assembly.
“Local tool and automation makers (Vitrox Corp Bhd, Pentamaster Corp Bhd, Greatech Technology Bhd) could see indirect risks as Osats could freeze capex and delay new orders,” he says.
Lim says it is “certainly possible”, should strict chip sectoral tariffs be imposed on Malaysia, that global original equipment manufacturers and US semiconductor firms may accelerate pushing for “friend-shoring” elsewhere or require Malaysian partners to establish US-based production lines.
This could pressure domestic Osats and toolmakers to invest overseas, dilute domestic expansions or reconfigure their global manufacturing footprint.
