IPI data
THE industrial production index (IPI) for June 2025, due this week, is expected to show a pickup in manufacturing activity.
According to a Bloomberg poll, Malaysia’s industrial production is expected to rise by 1.8% year-on-year in June.
In May, the IPI remained positive, albeit moderating to 0.3% from 2.7% in the previous month.
According to Trading Economics’ global macro models and analyst forecasts, the IPI is expected to increase by 2.2% by the end of this quarter.
Meanwhile, Bank Negara is scheduled to announce its international reserves as at July 31 this Thursday.
RBI decision
ING expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to keep interest rates on hold following June’s 50-basis-point (bps) cut. While the central bank signalled a pause, it remains open to further easing if growth slows or inflation softens.
ING noted that its growth outlook is slightly more cautious than the RBI’s.
With real interest rates remaining elevated, ING continues to expect a rate cut of 25 bps in the fourth quarter (4Q25).
According to a Bloomberg poll, 12 out of 15 analysts expect the RBI to keep its repurchase rate unchanged at 5.5%, while the remaining three, including UOB, anticipate a 25-bps cut to 5.25%.
UOB expects overall inflation to ease to between 1.1% and 1.5% (midpoint: 1.3%) in July, despite favourable base effects.
China trade data
CHINA’s trade figures will be the highlight of this week’s data releases.
According to Bloomberg, China’s July trade data is expected to show exports rising 6.1% year-on-year (y-o-y), up from 5.9% in June, while imports are projected to contract 0.7% y-o-y.
The trade surplus is forecast to narrow to US$106.3bil from US$114.75bil.
ING, however, expects export growth of approximately 4.6% y-o-y, while imports may decline again by 1.9% y-o-y, resulting in a trade surplus of US$103.4bil.
GDP data
UOB expects Indonesia to report 2Q25 gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5% y-o-y. Bloomberg’s consensus forecasts a 3.68% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) expansion and a 4.78% y-o-y growth, compared with -0.98% q-o-q and 4.87% y-o-y in 1Q25.
Meanwhile, the Philippines is projected to post 2Q25 GDP growth of 5.2% y-o-y, also according to UOB.
Bloomberg estimates range between 1.3% and 1.8% q-o-q and 5.6% y-o-y, up from 1.2% q-o-q and 5.4% y-o-y in 1Q25.
