KUALA LUMPUR: Maybank Investment Bank Bhd (Maybank IB) expects Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to lower its overnight policy rate (OPR) by 25 basis points (bps) at the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting to be held on July 9, 2025.
In a note today, the investment bank said that while current economic data have not yet crossed the threshold for a cut, tentative signs of softening growth momentum and mounting external headwinds justify a preemptive move as policy transmission works with a lag.
"The dovish May MPC statement has opened the door for BNM easing. From a risk management perspective, we believe the risk of cutting too late clearly exceeds that of cutting too early,” it said.
Maybank IB also noted that ringgit bonds traded slightly stronger last week, with the curve between flat and three basis points lower.
Meanwhile, ASEAN local bonds held onto their gains despite the selloff in United Kingdom gilt-edged securities and post-non-farm payroll pressure on United States Treasuries.
"As the curve has already fully priced in a cut, market reaction will likely depend on the tone, whether it is a neutral or dovish cut. Conversely, a hold could prompt some upward repricing in yields,” it added. - Bernama
