Charting growth: A container ship at a port in Mexico. At least 51% of Mexico’s exports fall under the USMCA trade agreement signed in 2020. — AFP
Mexico City: Mexico’s finance chief Edgar Amador says the North American free trade agreement should continue to bolster the economy despite the threat that the United States could push for major changes to it.
At least 51% of the nation’s exports traded under the rules of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, in early April as firms saw it gave them a “competitive advantage”, Amador said in an interview last Friday.
Products sent under USMCA rules remain exempt from the 25% tariffs the United States imposed on Canadian and Mexican exports in March, but other items aren’t. Amador reiterated his ministry’s forecast that the economy will expand this year, but declined to give a specific estimate given volatility and the United States’ quick-changing trade policy.
“We know that many analysts are factoring in a negative performance for the economy, but that is not our base scenario,” Amador said last Friday, speaking on the sidelines of the 88th National Banking Convention. “Our base scenario is still one of moderate expansion.”
Amador became finance chief in March with the task of trying to rein in Mexico’s fiscal deficit even as growth slows amid a period of trade uncertainty.
The economy narrowly avoided a technical recession earlier this year with a 0.2% first quarter expansion, after contracting in the final three months of last year.
The central bank recently halved its growth forecast for this year to 0.6%, while the Finance Ministry in its most recent budget estimate predicted a range of 1.5% to 2.3%.
The latest survey from Citi was less optimistic, with economists predicting an expansion of 0.1% – down from 1% in February.
US President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again trade threats have caused upheaval in Mexico’s export sector, as firms rushed to ship goods across the border ahead of any duties, providing a temporary boost to first quarter growth.
Amador said that an additional 10 percentage points of exports should soon meet the USMCA’s export requirements to trade duty-free, with the administration of President Claudia Sheinbaum looking for ways to expedite the process.
The Trump administration has spoken about moving forward the USMCA review scheduled for next year, “but it has also shown its preference to keep the current rules in place until 2026, so everything is on the table”, he said.
During a recent meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Trump said the USMCA is “actually very effective” but also said the deal would be renegotiated shortly.
At the banking event, Sheinbaum touted the economy’s slight expansion in the first three months of this year even as the US economy shrank.
Alongside the head of the country’s banking association, Amador announced a pledge to offer more credit to small and medium firms.
Trump’s statements on trade have often roiled the Mexican peso, though recently it has shown resilience, and over the last month is among the best performers in Latin America.
Last Friday it strengthened 0.4% to 19.45 per greenback. “Investors recognise our commitment to fiscal consolidation,” Amador said.
“That should give us support to the peso and it’s always good to remember that our currency is one of the more liquid in emerging markets.” — Bloomberg
