MUMBAI: Malaysian palm oil is likely to trade around RM4,000 per metric ton in 2025, except for a brief rise up to RM4,800 in February, amid stiff competition from soyoil, industry analyst Dorab Mistry said.
The benchmark palm oil contract FCPOc3 for April delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost RM64, or 1.52%, to RM4,144 a metric ton by midday.
Mistry was earlier in November expecting Malaysian palm oil futures to trade above and around RM5,000 until June 2025.
Palm oil prices could rise briefly in February ahead of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, said Mistry, a director of Indian consumer goods company Godrej International, in a presentation at industry conference on Thursday.
Palm oil consumption tends to rise during Ramadan, which is expected to start in early March, as Muslims gather at dusk for communal feasts to break their fast. It ends with the Islamic holiday of Eid al-Fitr.
"From April onwards, palm oil production will start picking up, and at the same time, South American new-season soyoil would become available at competitive prices. This would put downward pressure on palm oil," Mistry said.
Global palm oil production could rise by 2.5 million metric tons in 2025, mainly due to an increase of around 2 million tons in Indonesia's output, he said.
Vegetable oil markets in 2025 will be heavily influenced by top palm oil producer Indonesia's B40 biodiesel mandate and United States biofuel policy, the analyst added.
President Donald Trump on Monday laid out a sweeping plan to maximise oil and gas production, rolling back environmental protections, and withdrawing the U.S. from an international pact to fight climate change. - Reuters
