— VNA/VNS
HCM CITY: The price of Vietnamese pepper is expected to continue increasing in 2025 due to a global supply decline, while demand in major markets such as the United States and Europe remains stable, and China may start purchasing pepper from Vietnam after the Lunar New Year.
Industry insiders said as much at the annual meeting of the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA) in HCM City late last week.
According to the International Pepper Community (IPC), global pepper production in 2024 decreased by about 4% (22,000 tonnes) compared to 2023, mainly due to a decline in production in Brazil and Vietnam.
The IPC forecasts that global pepper production in 2025 will continue to decline, due in part to the lower economic efficiency of pepper compared to other crops, leading many farmers to no longer choose pepper as a primary crop.
Climate change has also reduced pepper yields, while production costs have risen significantly.
Hoang Thi Lien, chairwoman of VPSA, said that last year, Vietnam exported 250,600 tonnes of pepper of all kinds worth a total value of more than US$1.3bil, with exports of black pepper accounting for US$1.1bil and white pepper US$200mil.
Although the pepper export volume in 2024 decreased by 5.1% compared to 2023, the export value surged by 45.4% thanks to a substantial increase in export prices, she added.
The United States was Vietnam’s largest pepper export market in 2024, with 72,311 tonnes accounting for 28.9% of the total, marking a 33.2% increase from 2023.
The United States was followed by the United Arab Emirates, Germany, the Netherlands and India, she said.
Ho Tri Nhuan, director of Gohan Co Ltd, said in 2024, demand for pepper in the US market was initially expected to grow by only 5%.
However, due to concerns over rising prices, importers started stockpiling, increasing their purchases by up to 40%.
He noted that based on assessments of supply and demand, pepper exports in 2025 were expected to face both opportunities and uncertainties.
Stable market demand and reduced output in some regions would help maintain high pepper prices.
However, the extent of price increases would depend on the purchasing pace of key markets like the United States and China, he said.
According to Nhuan, pepper prices in 2025 are expected to rise further.
Nhuan said China was expected to increase its purchases as soon as Vietnam begins its main harvest season this spring, while the United States might buy at a slower pace due to high inventory levels carried over from 2024. — Vietnam News/ANN
