NEW YORK: Treasuries are under pressure in a holiday-shortened session as investors remain wary to park cash in US government debt that matures in a decade or more.
Yields on long-term debt led moves higher Tuesday, adding to a steepening trend in the curve that has dominated trading in the market.
Benchmark 10-year yields traded at 4.62%, up about three basis points (bps), with the gap to two-year securities widening as much as 28 bps, close to its steepest since 2022. Bonds are trading in an abridged US session, with trading volumes about 50% of normal.
Prospects that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will end its current easing cycle at a higher level than previously expected and that President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda may spark growth and inflation as well as potentially worsen the US fiscal backdrop has weighed on long-term debt.
Options traders’ are biasing wagers to those that will profit if yields move further upward.
“We are in a rising rate environment and it’s really all coming from the longer end,” said Tom di Galoma, head of fixed income at Curvature Securities.
“There’s a lot of concern about what the next administration will be doing and how it impacts where rates go.
“There could even be some talk in 2025 of the Fed needing to raise rates,” if inflation rebounds sharply.
The 10-year yield should keep moving upward to the next support at around the 5% level, with the two-to-10-year curve spread likely to reach 50 bps sometime next year, di Galoma said.
The US Treasury market lost 1.8% this month, trimming this year’s gains to just 0.3%, according to a Bloomberg index as of through Dec 23. The complex was up around 4.6% this year through Sept 17, the day before the Fed began its rate-cutting cycle by shaving its policy benchmark down a half a percentage point.
Last year, Treasuries gained 4.1%, after posting losses of 12.5% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2021. Treasuries remained lower after a second round of coupon-bearing debt supply received good demand.
The US Treasury sold US$70bil of five-year notes Tuesday after its auction on Monday of two-year securities was met with solid demand.
Yesterday, the Treasury sold US$44bil seven-year notes. — Bloomberg
