Markets pricing in higher recession odds

Together equity and bond markets are assigning a 41% probability to a US recession, up from 29% in April, according to Goldman. — Bloomberg

NEW YORK: Financial markets are flashing a higher probability of an oncoming recession in the wake the market maelstrom that briefly sparked fear across Wall Street last week.

It still remains an outside chance. But models from Goldman Sachs Group Inc and JPMorgan Chase & Co showed that the market-implied odds of an economic downturn has risen materially, judging by signals in the US bond market and to a lesser extent the performance of stocks that are acutely sensitive to the ebbs and flows of the business cycle.