Aluminum rally is ‘overdone’ as supply returns

Prices should revert to an earlier trading range of US$2,100 to US$2,400 per tonne for commodity-grade aluminium over the next six months. — Bloomberg

SINGAPORE: Aluminium prices should decline by at least 6% over the next six months as supply returns to the market and high interest rates continue to crimp manufacturing demand, according to an analyst from Trafigura Group, one of the biggest traders of the metal.

“We’re looking at a very grim demand picture right now,” metals analyst Henry Van said at the CRU World Aluminium Conference in London on Wednesday.

“It’s a fundamentally overdone rally.”

Three-month aluminium futures on the London Metal Exchange are up 8% so far this year, having risen recently as part of broad gains across the commodities complex.

The metal is used in everything from solar panels to housing, cars and beverage cans. Prices should revert to an earlier trading range of US$2,100 to US$2,400 per tonne for commodity-grade aluminium over the next six months, Van said, citing worsening consumption. — Bloomberg