Good numbers: A Prada store along a two-block stretch of New York’s Fifth Avenue, a key shopping corridor. The overall consumer price index probably rose less than 3% for the first time in nearly two years, economists forecast today’s report to show. — Bloomberg
NEW YORK: The pulse of US inflation likely continued to slow at the start of the year, helping to feed expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will find interest rate cuts more palatable in the coming months.
The core consumer price index (CPI), a measure that excludes food and fuel for a better picture of underlying inflation, is seen increasing 3.7% in January from a year earlier.
That would mark the smallest year-over-year advance since April 2021, and underscore the inroads Fed chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues have made in beating back inflation.
The overall CPI probably rose less than 3% for the first time in nearly two years, economists forecast today’s report to show.
While acknowledging that progress, policymakers have been cool to the idea that rates may be reduced as soon as next month.
Their patience has roots in an economy that’s flashing green lights, the biggest of which is the labour market.
Durable employment growth has kept consumers spending. A separate report on Thursday is projected to reveal another increase in retail sales, excluding motor vehicles and petrol.
The cooling of inflation, along with expectations that borrowing costs will head lower this year, explains the recent improvement in consumer confidence.
A University of Michigan survey scheduled for release on Friday is forecast to show an index of sentiment holding near the highest level since July 2021.
Investors will also monitor Fed officials speaking in the days following the CPI data, to gauge the timing of any future rate cut.
Among those on the schedule are regional bank presidents Raphael Bostic of Atlanta and Mary Daly of San Francisco, who both vote on policy this year.
Economists said in deciding when to start cutting rates, the Fed will have to reconcile the data they have in hand, which show inflation on a fast track to the 2% target, with risks that inflation could flare up again or the labour market could weaken more sharply.
Data in the coming week will factor into that decision, but won’t provide a definitive answer, they added. — Bloomberg
