Vietnam’s coffee exports forecast to drop due to lower yields


Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first 11 months of 2023 decreased by nearly 13% over the same period in 2022. — AFP

HO CHI MINH CITY: Vietnam’s coffee export volume in the 2023-2024 season is likely to be lower than a year earlier due to a drop in output, trade officials say

The Vietnam Nam Coffee and Cocoa Association also said there was no held-over stock, rising local demand, and that export prices would remain high.

Speaking at the 27th Asia International Conference in Ho Chi Minh City earlier this week, Nguyen Nam Hai, the association’s chairman, said Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta coffee bean supplier is in the 2023-24 harvest season with about 50% of total cultivation areas harvested and output estimated to drop much more than expected.

He said the new season is likely to yield 1.6 million-1.7 million tonnes compared to 1.78 million tonnes in the previous season due to unfavourable weather and shrinking planting area. Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first 11 months of 2023 decreased by nearly 13% over the same period in 2022 and is likely to fall by almost 15% for the whole year, he added.

Do Ha Nam, the association’s deputy chairman and chairman of Intimex Group, one of Vietnam’s leading coffee export companies, said coffee cultivation areas, especially in Dak Lak and Dak Nong, are shrinking.

He elaborated that each hectare of coffee brings in a profit of about 200 million dong, while avocado offers one billion dong to 1.5 billion dong, more than five times more than coffee. This makes it tough to keep farmers engaged in coffee farming.

According to data from the Agriculture and Rural Development Ministry, on paper the country has about 700,000ha under coffee cultivation, but in reality, it may only be just over 600,000ha, he said.

Steve Wateridge, head of research at consultancy Tropical Research Services, said the global coffee supply had seen quite a sizable deficit in the past two years, significantly impacting stockpiles and prices.

He said that global consumption of robusta beans rose by 10% in 2023, whereas Arabica production fell by 8%, adding that higher demand has pushed up prices of robusta beans.

Nam said 2023 has been significant for Vietnam’s coffee industry with domestic and export prices continuously rising. — Viet Nam News/ANN

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