US recession prediction likely to be wrong

Dodged bullet: A woman shops for toys at a Walmart store in California. Traders see price pressures easing through time, easing the odds for a recession ahead, says renowned economist Campbell Harvey. — AFP

NEW YORK: Economist Campbell Harvey has had a winning track record since he showed in his dissertation at the University of Chicago decades ago that the shape of the bond yield curve was linked to the path of US economic activity.

US recessions have been preceded by an inverted yield curve – when short-term rates exceed those of longer tenors – since the late 1960s.