Astro faces challenges in year ahead

PETALING JAYA: It will be a challenging financial year 2023 (FY23) for Astro Malaysia Holdings Bhd with falling subscriptions and stagnating average revenue per user (ARPUs).

Falling consumer sentiment may also face downtrading or even an increased churn rate as inflationary pressure and high interest rates squeeze consumer spending.

The second half of 2023 (2H23) performance is expected to be hit by higher content costs with the 2022 FIFA World Cup and Commonwealth Games eating into the bottom line, said Kenanga Research.

But on a slightly brighter note, Kenanga Research said the group has seen an increase in the pick-up rate for their broadband service, about 40% year-on-year (y-o-y).

However, contributions remain marginal and the road to competing as an internet service provider seems a long one.

It said the group has already secured licensing contracts for FY23 and added that the weak ringgit could result in crimped margins in FY24.

The group’s licensed content from foreign producers could result in an increase in content costs as royalties are denominated in foreign currencies. The effects will be felt more from 2H24.

After Astro’s 1H23 results, TA Research lowered its FY23 to FY25 earnings estimates by 8.1% to 20.3%.

It says Astro remains committed to its transformation plans.

The key focus area includes its core pay-TV segment, where efforts to strengthen the customer value proposition include aggregating the best streaming apps and integrating them onto the ultra and ulti boxes as well as enhancing local content.

Astro’s 1H23 core net profit tumbled 10.4% y-o-y. While all segments underperformed y-o-y, the most alarming is the continued slide of its cash cow - subscription revenue.

CGS-CIMB Research said costs incurred to obtain the rights to air and stream the FIFA World Cup will choke Astro’s margins.

It added that Astro is also a victim of the lack of enforcement against piracy in Malaysia. It has a “hold’’ on the stock and lowered its target price to 88 sen a share.

RHB Investment Bank Research cut its FY23 to 25F core earnings by 10% to 11%.

Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research also lowered its FY23, FY24 and FY25 forecasts by 13.6%, 12.7% and 4.8%, respectively. It still maintains a “buy’’ at RM1.28 a share.

Despite the results shortfall, HLIB Research said it continues to like Astro as a long-term play.

It believes that an eventual recovery in its subscription and advertising revenue will signal an inflection point which could provide a re-rating opportunity for the stock.

UOB Kay Hian Research said the key re-rating catalysts for the stock include a higher-than-expected dividend payout for FY23, a higher-than-expected pay-TV ARPU and a favourable regulatory outlook in light of the crackdown on piracy.

MIDF Research said it was still sanguine on the prospects of Astro as it believes the advertising expenditure environment will improve as the economy further reopens.

It said the upcoming FIFA World Cup campaign in November could bode well for its top line.