Economic Highlights for 2021 and 2022


Finance Minister Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Abdul Aziz is tabling Budget 2022 in the Dewan Rakyat here at 4pm today

Finance Minister Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Abdul Aziz is tabling Budget 2022 in the Dewan Rakyat here at 4pm today.

Here are some of the highlights from the Economic Outlook 2022 report.

Federal Government revenue

Federal Government's revenue collection in 2022 is estimated to be higher at RM234bil or 14.3% to GDP.

Total expenditure slightly higher at RM332.1bil or 20.3% to GDP, attributed to operating expenditure at RM233.5bil and development expenditure at RM75.6bil.

Development expenditure will be part of 12the MP, among others include the Electrified Double Track Rail Gemas - Johor Bahru, Rapid Transit System Link and Pan Borneo Highway.

The fiscal deficit is expected to moderate to 6% to GDP.

Government drawing up Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) to strengthen governance, accountability and transparency in fiscal management.

Continuation of the packages to combat the Covid-19 will have spillover effects and boost the economy in 2022.

GDP at purchasers' price contracted 5.6% in 2020 to RM1,343bil is forecast to be expand between 3% and 4% this year to RM1,391bil and is forecast to rebound between 5.5% and 6.5% in 2022 to RM1,474bil.

GDP by kind of economic activity at constant 2015 prices:

GDP to rebound from -5.6% contraction in 2020 to expand 3% to 4% in 2021 and grow 5.5% to 6.5% in 2022.

Agriculture in 2020 shrank -2.2% and see slower contraction of -0.8% in 2021 and is set to rebound to see a 3.9% growth next year.

Mining and quarrying fell 10.6% in 2020 and to recover to see a 1.5% growth in 2021 but it is expected to taper off to minus 0.3% in 2022.

Manufacturing shrank -2.6% in 2020 due to the MCO implementation and SOPs. However, it is expected to grow by 8.1% this year, underpinned by strong export-related industry. However due to the higher base, it is expected to expand 4.7% next year.

Construction contracted 19.4% in 2020 due to MCO. However, it is expected to see a smaller contraction of 0.8% this year and rebounding 11.5% in 2022.

Services shrank 5.5% in 2020 but it is set to expand 2.6% in 2021 and expected to pick up with a 7% growth in 2022.

Other economic data

GDP per capita is forecast to be US$11,124.7 and improving to US$12,295.7 next year.

Consumer price index is estimated to be 2.4% this year and slowing down to 2.1% next year.

Unemployment rate is expected to be 4.6% to 4.8% this year and forecast to decline to 4% next year.

Current account balance is estimated to be US$14.1bil in 2021 and improve to US$15.6bil in 2022.

Gross international reserves are expected at US$115.2bil this year.

• Current prices - Gross national income (GNI) by demand aggregates

Final consumption expenditure:

Public -- RM191.334bil this year and rising to RM193.641bil in 2022.

Private – RM917.97bil and exceeding RM1 trillion to RM1.006 trillion in 2022.

• Gross fixed capital formation

Public -- RM73.504bil in 2021 and rising sharply to RM93.301bil in 2022 (includes investment of public corporations)

Private – RM227.06bil this year and rising to RM237.04bil in 2022.

Gross national income (GNI) at RM1.474 trillion in 2021 and forecast to rise to RM1.584 trillion in 2022.

• Loan disbursements by commercial banking system in terms of purpose (includes loans sold to Cagamas) -- Sectors:

Total loans outstanding by purpose in 2019 was RM1.153 trillion end-December and rose to RM1.162 trillion end-2020 and by August 2021, it was RM1.170 trillion.

Of which purchase of securities was RM30,0854mil at Dec 2019 and was at RM30,019mil end-December 2020 and by August 2021 it was RM28,688mil.

Purchase of passenger cars was RM82,901mil at Dec 2019, and dipped to RM82,676mil at end-Dec 2020. It was at RM78,060 by August 2021.

Purchase of residential properties totalled RM422,262mil at Dec 2019 (or 36.6% of total loans), and at RM440,600mil end-2020 (37.9%) and improved to RM448,097mil (38.3%) at August 2021).

Loans for personal use were at RM36,628mil at Dec 2019, and rose to RM37,359mil end-2020 and were at RM35,545mil at August 2021.

Loans for credit cards were at RM37,098mil end-2019, fell to RM32,277mil end-2020 and was at RM28,859mil at August 2021.

Loans for construction were RM40,607mil end-2019, edging up to RM41,877mil end-2020 and showed an improvement to RM43,265mil end August.

A pick-up in confidence saw loans for working capital climbing in end-August 2021 after registering RM264,855mil (22.5% share of outstanding loans in RM261,781bil in end-December 2020. At end-2019, it was RM268,885mil before the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic the following later part of 2020.

In terms of total loans in terms of sector:

The household sector accounted for more than half of total commercial loans through 2017 to end-August 2021. It was RM648,438mil end-2019; RM569,476mil end-2020; and RM655,040mil end-August 2022.

Manufacturing including agro-based was RM94,548mil end-2019; RM90,824mil end-2020 and RM96,371mil end-August 2022.

Loans to the wholesale and retail and restaurants totalled RM101,281mil end-2019, RM104,790mil end- 2020 and improved as at August 2021 to RM109,233mil.

Construction saw an uptick in 2020 to RM60,561mil from RM57,140mil in 2019 and at end-August was RM59,038mil.

Real estate recorded RM83,669mil in 2019; RM82,817mil in 2020 and RM79,957 at end-August.

Islamic banks: Loan outstanding by purpose and sector:

Total financing by Islamic banks saw an increase throughout from 2017 to end-August this year from RM478,954mil in 2017 to RM564,099mil in 2018. It rose to RM611,068mil in 2019 and stayed stable at RM660,831mil in 2020 and rebounded to RM681,022mil end-August.

Selected data: Loans by sector by purpose saw purchase of residential properties accounting for about a third of total loans, rose from RM182,522mil at-end 2019 to RM207,208mil to 2021 and were RM223,925mil end-August.

Purchase of passenger cars totalled RM75,613mil in 2019; RM84,752mil in 2020 and RM86,072mil end August.

Loans for working capital or one-fifth of total loans rose from RM133.398mil in 2019 to RM138,342mil in 2020 and RM139,096mil end August.

Loans for personal use or nearly one-tenth of total outstanding loans by purpose rose from RM59,831mil in 2019 to RM64,098mil in 2020 to RM65,021 end-August.

Health

Population per doctor at 530 in 2018, and at 482 in 2019 and 441 in 2020.

Official beds strength in public sector were 46,611 in 2010 and expanded to 46,988 in 2019 and 48,305 in 2020.

Information technology

Mobile cellular penetration rose per 100 inhabitants (%) rose from 130.2 in 2018 to 135.4 in 2019 but declined to 133.6 last year.

Mobile broadband penetration rate (% of housing units) rose from 113.4% in 2018 to 123.7% in 2019 but dipped to 118.7 in 2020.

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