WE are in a critical stage in the race to end the deadly Covid-19 pandemic, with rising daily infection cases and deaths hitting record level and an overstretched healthcare system.
Although the vaccination programme has picked up, it is still slow. The enormous task ahead is to increase the vaccine supply and accelerate vaccination during the three phases of a nationwide lockdown (full movement control order or FMCO), covering two to four weeks.
Throughout our fighting journey against the unprecedented pandemic, the implementation of the different phases of movement restrictions, relaxation and reopening (MCO 1, MCO 2, conditional MCO, enhanced MCO and recovery MCO) come with considerable social, economic and political consequences.
We are now racing against time. The next two and four weeks of FMCO give us the much-needed breathing space to manage the inflection level and relieve the healthcare system.
More urgently is that we must continue to ramp up mass testing, diagnostic checking, contact tracing and isolation as well as getting more people vaccinated, say, at least 30% (9.8 million persons) of targeted population having one dose from 2.36 million persons as of June 5,2021.
It was observed that with the exception of MCO 1.0, we were unable to contain the virus spread and flattened the infections to an acceptable and manageable level during the movement restrictions.
What have gone wrong? Pandemic fatigue caused the authorities and people to let down their guard in curbing the virus transmission; premature withdrawal or excessive relaxation of MCO restrictions; confusing standard operating procedures (SOP); lax enforcement; and inconsistency and double-standards in the compliance of SOP have caused public to be less compliant despite the hefty fines.
The lessons we should have learnt relate to the leadership, public communication, SOP, public self-discipline and the ethics of implementation and enforcement.
What’s next after these two weeks of lockdown? We have to start planning and preparing now as we move to the second phase of FMCO (a four-week period starting June 15) so as to ensure a smooth transition of implementation and avoid market confusion.
The phases of safe transition from allowing more economic sectors or some social activities to safe reopening of the economy for returning to normalcy will be guided by the level of infectivity and vaccination rate.
A responsible and safe transition to a reopening framework covers good and clear communication, gaining public trust and cooperation, influencing public behaviour in compliance, ethics as well as the enforcement of SOP during the lockdown, transition and reopening.
> Start early in engaging with industry stakeholders in the preparation of the SOP and get them out at least three days before the date of implementation. This allows time for businesses to get ready and make the necessary arrangements.
> Clearly define SOP (simple, consistent, and clear dos and don’ts) to avoid confusion and misinterpretation of the rules and regulations by the law enforcers. Rules that have so many exceptions are impossible to apply and enforce. Whatever rules and SOPs we choose will hurt someone.
> The SOP is to be standardised and uniformly applied by the federal, state and local authorities. Make the SOP available in Bahasa Malaysia, English, Mandarin and Tamil.
> To avoid confusion and for better compliance, we can consider implementing a tiered system and colour-coded SOP to signify different stages of movement restrictions. The Covid-19 risk assessment will be measured by the level of infectivity: (1) Red (Widespread); (2) Orange (Substantial); (3) Yellow (Moderate); and (4) Green (Minimal). This provides clearer information on the various protocols and restrictions that will apply.
> The staged lifting of movement restrictions and reopening will be pegged to the level of vaccination rate, the level of compliance as well as the number of infections as follow:
(i) The level of infections has to come down continuously for at least 14 days in a row;
(ii) Making use of vaccination as the basis for adjusting social distancing measures in the food and beverage sector, social gathering, leisure sports, religious congregations as well as border control measures, say, to visit tourist attractions and indoor recreation places. For example, in Ontario, Canada, it uses three-step vaccination threshold to draw up a roadmap for reopening: (a) Step 1; 60% adults with one dose; (b) Step 2: 70% adults with one dose; 20% fully vaccinated; and (c) Step 3: 70%-80% adults with one dose; 25% fully vaccinated;
It is crucial to instill public trust in the government and Health Ministry to secure citizen support and hence, lead to greater compliance. Transparent disclosure of accurate information, effective communication and timely dissemination of granular data in this critical period is crucial, as misinformation undermines the public health response and aggravate public anxiety.
Public response suggests a desire for clear and undisputable rules backed by hard and irrefutable evidence. In New Zealand and Singapore, a clear alert level system was publicised, with graduated levels of response based on the threat being faced, and simple, understandable rules and restrictions that came along with them.
Lee Heng Guie is Socio Economic Research Centre executive director. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.
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