History says bond traders are not good at timing Fed lift-off

A WORD of warning for all those bond traders banking on a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike as soon as next year: Since 2008, markets have underestimated how patient officials can be in lifting borrowing costs from zero.

After the Fed first slashed rates that low during the financial crisis, hedgers and bettors in money-market derivatives established a track record of being consistently too aggressive on a first move higher, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.