Inflation expected to return on high fuel prices, demand


PETALING JAYA: After facing monthly deflation for nearly a year, Malaysia is expected to feel inflationary price pressure once again as fuel prices increase and demand gradually returns.

Hong Leong Investment Bank Research said headline inflation is expected to turn positive starting March 2021 onwards.

Apart from the low base effect due to low crude oil prices in March last year, rising domestic fuel prices are also anticipated to lift inflation growth.

However, the research house said the government’s decision to lower the ceiling price for RON95 petrol by three sen to RM2.05 per litre may cap volatile inflationary pressures.

CLICK TO ENLARGECLICK TO ENLARGE

“Despite the lower ceiling petrol price, we maintain our consumer price index (CPI) forecast at 2.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) due to upside risk from global food inflation, ” it said in a note.

In simple terms, a rise in CPI value against the previous year is referred to as inflation, while a decrease is referred to as deflation.

In January 2021, the country’s deflation rate fell to its lowest level in 10 months.

Malaysia’s CPI decreased by 0.2% y-o-y in January 2021 as compared to a decline of 1.4% in December 2020.

MIDF Research said the headline deflation rate in January 2021 was close to its forecast of 0.5% y-o-y.

The significant improvement could be attributed to two key sub-indices of CPI namely, housing and utilities as well as transportation, which recorded substantial lower fall in prices for January 2021.

Collectively, both sub-indices contributed a weightage of 38.4% in the CPI.

MIDF Research has maintained its inflation forecast at 1.8% for 2021.

“Inflationary pressure was largely muted in 2020 due to weak demand and government rebates through the electricity discount bills.

“For this year, however, prices are expected to increase on the back of higher crude oil prices and returning demand as the economy recovers, also facilitated by a low interest rate environment.

“Vaccine rollout in the country will likely improve sentiments and encourage spending, moving forward, ” it said.

Article type: metered
User Type: anonymous web
User Status:
Campaign ID: 46
Cxense type: free
User access status: 3

inflation , fuel price , demand ,

   

Next In Business News

CPO futures likely to trend higher next week
Asian LNG spot prices rise as China replenishes inventories
US stops short of branding Vietnam, Switzerland, Taiwan currency manipulators
Oil price down but secures weekly gain on recovery hopes
GLOBAL MARKETS-World stocks at new peaks on strong China, US data
Food for thought
Food inflation will continue to rise if efficiency is not addressed
Short position - AmBanks' placement, virtual AGMs, glove stocks
The question of MoUs materialising
Kerjaya’s prospects bright

Stories You'll Enjoy


Vouchers