Another wake-up call for Pakatan

A 40% drop by any standard in a poll has to be a wake-up call for a government to change the way it’s managing the country as it shows significant dissatisfaction among voters.

This was what was revealed by the Merdeka Centre poll among 1,204 voters aged 21 years and above across the nation covering the 222 parliamentary seats. The survey, which was conducted in early March this year, was a well-balanced survey, representing Malaysia’s diverse ethnicity, gender neutral and across income and occupations/sectors.

According to the survey published last week, 46% see the country’s direction going the wrong way against 34% that see it going the right way. This is a significant change as in May last year the readings then showed 64% as being in the right direction and only 12% in wrong direction. It also showed significant deterioration in the way the Pakatan Harapan government is managing the economy as satisfaction level is now at only at 40%, 12 percentage points less than the 52% that are dissatisfied. In addition, between May 2018 and March 2019, the PM’s rating has dropped by 37 percentage points to just 46% while the perception of the Pakatan government itself has declined by 40 percentage points to just 39% in March 2019 from 79% in May 2018.

There is no denying that the findings are indeed an eye opener for the government to readjust its policies to ensure voter satisfaction improves. Indeed, the top concern according to the Merdeka Centre is the economy and cost of living issues as well as, surprisingly, preservation of Malay rights/fair treatment of all races.

> What shall the Pakatan government do?

This column highlighted five key areas that the Pakatan should focus on in 2019 (StarBiz, Dec 22, 2018) and among them were the economy, sound economic policies & reforms and to stop the political frog game.

Readers would note that the Pakatan government today has a mandate to govern the nation with 138 seats (excluding DAP’s Sandakan parliamentary seat as it is now going through a by-election) and is just short of 10 seats for a 2/3rd majority in Parliament. Barisan Nasional has 40 seats while Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) and PAS has 19 and 18 seats respectively. Granted that Barisan is now working with PAS, that coalition can be said to be the largest opposition with 58 seats or just under 26% share of the total seats.

All the government needed to do is to communicate its decisions well to the people and not to allow dissenting voices to use these issues as a platform to gain people’s sympathy as the facts have then been twisted for the benefit of a few. Are we saying to the world that we are all for racial discrimination to continue in new Malaysia? Or we saying to the world that Malaysia doesn’t want to be rectify the Rome Statute due to unfounded fears instilled by a select few on our Rulers? When a ruling coalition succumbs to pressures of the minority political voices, the voices of these minority will grow louder in every reform move and thus resulting in failure to carry out more substantial changes demanded by voters in GE14.

On the economic front, the government has come to its senses to jump start the economy with the revival of key infrastructure projects as highlighted by this column (StarBiz, Jan 12, 2019) with both ECRL and Bandar Malaysia back on track, leaving the High Speed Rail (HSR) link between KL-Singapore remaining as key project yet to be revived.

While the market welcomes these initiatives, the government too has to make sure that it is transparent in its process in awarding the contracts as well as going through the right parliamentary process for approval with a robust cost and benefit analysis that shows the positive impact to the economy. We also need to address the issue of how these infrastructure projects will be funded and if it is part of national budget or off-balance sheet budget as how it was practice before.

Talking about budget, it is understandable that the government is trying to manage its finances given the near empty coffers left by the previous administration as well as massive funds needed to rehabilitate our institutions like Felda and Tabung Haji as well as paying 1MDB debts, the government needs to ensure that the economy is moving in the right direction for the benefit of the people. Public investments, other than those meant for maintenance and new investments needs to be stepped up to ensure we are continuously be able to create new job opportunities as well as generating economic growth.

Yes, we are worried about not meeting our budget deficit targets or even surpassing our self-imposed 55% debt to GDP ratio, but if this is at the expense of creating unhappiness among Malaysians, perhaps its just better to spend to provide the necessary social safety net among the B40 group as they are feeling the pressure of higher cost of living. Until and unless we are able to lift them up economically, they are very much dependent on government’s handouts and hence it is imperative that the Pakatan government continues to provide what was previously allocated to them.

It is not the end of the world if our official debt to GDP ratio surpasses the 55% level as the world over today is deeply in debt with countries in EU running at 80% while in the US is more than 100%. While it may be unorthodox to surpass our self-imposed 55% debt-to-GDP target, it is not to far fetch to push it higher by few percentage points if there is indeed a necessity for the short term until we are able to find a firmer footing. Restricting public expenditure for prudence sake and to ensure the government is committed towards its budget deficit target at the expense of lower GDP growth and lesser benefits for the people may not be an answer for this year or next year.

> Re-visit the PH 60-point promise

On the policy front, the PM had crafted out key measures that the government intends to undertake while some of the PH’s manifesto promises remained unfulfilled. Perhaps, with the 1st anniversary around the corner, the PH government should re-visit its 60 promises and the tell rakyat which of these promises remains in place for the next 4 years for PH to fulfil and which among them are going to be thrown out of the window.

In this way, a message is rightly communicated as to what Malaysians should expect over the next four years before GE15 is called. This would also help the market to understand which are the expected measures to be put in place as the market too cannot afford to see further flip-flops in policies.

Talking about policies, the government needs to make use of its communication machinery to explain to the rakyat measures that it wants to make in order for the people to understand them better as well as appreciate government’s efforts. At the same time, the govermnent too needs to have a clear and concise policies, which are well thought out as we do not want Ministers to say one thing today and retract it later or to change what was promised in its manifesto.

> Make succession plan clearAnother sore point for the market is the potential conflict that may arise when the time comes for PM-designate Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s turn comes to assume the premiership, be it later this year or next year. What the Pakatan government could do is to name him Deputy Prime Minister now as this would remove one uncertainty that is adding to market noises. With the 1st year anniversary just around the corner, it is also an opportune time the Cabinet to be reshuffled with the appointment of several new ministers as clearly some have failed to perform. Simple fact is that some ministers have just not carried out their respective responsibilities other than some comical suggestions and the fact that the public at large has trouble even naming the minister for a particular portfolio is enough to suggest that minister has failed his job.

In conclusion, with four more years to go before GE15 is called and with dwindling support from the people based on the Merdeka Center poll, the PH government has nothing to lose but to be bold and strong and not be intimidated by rallying cries of the opposition. It is time for reforms and economic prosperity and the time is now.