MALAYSIA Derivatives Exchange (Mdex) crude palm oil futures prices ended the week slightly lower after having fluctuated on both sides of its previous week’s close. Worries that exports for February may be sharply lower from a month ago prevented the market from rallying despite sharp gains in soyoil early during the week.
Cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance's (SGS) report that exports for the first ten days of February were lower at 212,297 tonnes from 282,235 tonnes a month ago kept players on the sideline and prompted some stale-bull liquidation.
The benchmark third-month April 2003 futures slipped from an intra-week high of RM1,611 to RM1,578 and closed the week down RM2 from a week ago and settled Friday at RM1,592 per tonne.
Chart-wise, the April 2003 crude palm oil futures concluded the week neutral-to-slightly negative and are expected to continue with its sideways-to-lower trading pattern this week. An important chart-support is seen for this week at the RM1,585-RM1,575 level. Breaching of this immediate term chart-support would indicate that the bearish trend is continuing and set the bearish momentum for the April contract to test its minor chart-support at the RM1,560-RM1,550 level. Chart hurdle for this week remains unchanged at the RM1,605-RM1,600 level.
The daily technical indicators closed the week mixed and called for further sideways band-trading this week.
The daily stochastics turned positive during Friday’s close and indicated that the market could adjust marginally higher this week. The oscillator per cent K and D settled the week higher at 40% and 36.69% respectively.
The 3-day and 7-day exponentially smoothed moving-average price-lines (ESA-line) extended on their negative divergence and indicated that the bearish cycle that started in late January is not over. The 3-day and 7-day ESA-lines settled the week lower at 1,593 and 1,600 points respectively.
The daily moving-average convergence/divergence (MACD) retained its sell-signal and signalled that the main trend is negative. The daily MACD settled the week below the trigger-line and closed the week lower at minus 9.17 points and minus 7.35 points respectively.
The daily momentum index (M.I) remained below 100-point mark and settled slightly lower at 97.47 points. Analysis of MI shows that the immediate term momentum of the market is bearish.
Soyoil futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell on aggressive commercial and hedge selling in early session and rebounded slightly on Thursday to close with moderate losses. News that rains in Brazil could hamper harvesting there gave rise to hopes that China would purchase US soybeans.
The May 2003 soyoil futures prices declined from a weekly-high of 20.50 US cents to 19.87 US cents and recovered some losses to end Thursday moderately lower at 20.12 US cents, off 0.18 US cent per lb from a week ago.
Chart-wise, the May 2003 soyoil futures prices settled the week slightly bearish and are set for further downward trading this week. Chart resistance for this week is revised lower from a week ago to the 20.30 US cents-20.40 US cents per lb level. Chart-support stands at the 20.00-19.90 US cents level. Violation of these January-low levels would likely trigger-off a strong wave of technical selling and send the May futures lower in search of a fresh technical base around the 19.50-19.30 US cents per lb level.
The daily technical indicators ended the week mixed and indicated that the market could come under renew selling pressure this week.
The daily stochastics ended the week positive and triggered the buy-signal during Thursday’s close. The daily oscillator per cent K closed above the oscillator per cent D and settled lower at 17.75% and 15.91% respectively. Analysis of the daily stochastics showed that the bearish cycle which started in early-February had ended.
The daily moving-average convergence/divergence (MACD) triggered the sell-signal on Feb 11 and signalled that the market's main trend is negative. The daily MACD closed below the trigger-line and settled marginally lower at minus 0.20 and minus 0.18 of a point respectively.
The 3-day and 7-day exponentially smoothed moving-average price lines remained in negative divergence and continue to show that the bearish cycle is intact. The 3-day and 7-day ESA-lines settled the week lower at 20.12 and 20.27 respectively.
The daily momentum index (MI) fell below the 100-point mark and settled in the negative territory at 97.57 points. Analysis of the daily MI shows that the market is in a bearish phase.
Cocoa futures prices on the Coffee, Sugar & Cocoa Exchange (CSCE) in New York rebounded strongly from an earlier sell-off that took the market to a 15-day low. Jitters over the unstable situation in Ivory Coast triggered off an aggressive wave of buying from funds and helped the market to regain almost all of its earlier declines.
The May 2003 cocoa prices ranged from a weekly-high of US$2,318 to US$2,242 and settled Thursday moderately lower at US$2,300, down US$42 per tonne from a week ago.
Chart-wise, the May 2003 cocoa futures prices are expected to remain choppy and experience wild swings in the coming week. Chart-support for this week remains unchanged from a week ago at the US$2,250-US$2,280 level. Violation of this vital support would indicate the resumption of the bearish cycle and send the market below the US$2,220 level. Minor chart-support for this week remains unchanged at the US$2,150-US$2,100 level. Chart resistance for this week is adjusted higher to the US$2,320-US$2,340 level.
The daily technical indicators closed the week neutral and indicated more wide range trading this week.
The daily stochastic sgave the buy-signal on Feb 13 and indicated that the downward wave that started in early-February has ended. The daily oscillator per cent K ended above the oscillator per cent D and closed lower at 47.58% and 60.73 % respectively. Analysis of the daily stochastics shows that the immediate term market could edge higher this week.
The 3-day and 7-day exponentially smoothed average price-lines (ESA-line) turned negative during Thursday’s close and indicated that a bearish cycle has started. The 3-day and 7-day ESA-lines ended the week lower at 2,299 and 2,304 respectively.
The daily moving-average convergence/divergence (MACD) retained the sell-signal of Feb 6 and indicated that the market’s main trend is negative. The daily MACD and trigger-line closed lower in the positive zones at 53.85 and 60.73 points respectively.
The daily momentum index (MI) ended the week lower at 102.00 points. Based on the daily MI, the market’s immediate trend is negative.
Tin prices on the Kuala Lumpur Tin Market (KLTM) rebounded sharply on renewed buying interests and closed Friday at its highest level in 2003. Firmer tin and other metal prices in the London Metal Exchange (LME) aided sentiment.
The cash tin prices concluded the week higher at US$4,550 per tonne, up US$140 per tonne from a week ago. Trading for the week ranged from US$4,570 to US$4,450 per tonne.
Total volume for the week increased to 130 tonnes from 90 tonnes a week ago.
Chart-wise, the cash tin immediate chart-picture is positive and trading is expected to remain upbeat this week. Chart-support for this week is adjusted higher to the US$4,500-US$4,530 per tonne level. Failure to break below this support would indicate that the market’s momentum is constructive. Chart-resistance for this week is pegged at the US$4,580-US$4,620 level.
The weekly technical indicators ended the week slightly positive and signalled further advances this week.
The weekly stochastics expanded on its sell-signal of Jan 30 and continues to suggest that the main trend is bearish. The weekly oscillator per cent K and D closed lower at 70.50% and 78.42%.
The weekly moving-average convergence/divergence (MACD) ended the week positive and called for a higher trading range this week. The MACD and the trigger-line settled the week in the positive territory at 0.09 and 0.07 points respectively.
The 3-week and 7-week exponentially smoothed average price-lines (ESA-lines) closed the week bullish and indicated that the upward cycle is intact. The 3-week and 7-week ESA-lines ended the week at 4,490 and 4,440 respectively.
The weekly momentum index ended above the 100-point mark and settled higher at 106.43 points. Analysis of the weekly MI showed that the market’s immediate momentum had turned positive.
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