NEW DELHI: A depression over the Bay of Bengal is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm on Monday (Nov 16) and a severe cyclonic storm by Tuesday (Nov 17), with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting further strengthening into a very severe cyclonic storm by Thursday (Nov 19).
In its Sunday (Nov 15) bulletin, the weather department projected maximum sustained winds of 120–130 kmph, gusting to 145 kmph, by Thursday morning.
The forecast also warned of heavy rainfall along parts of India’s eastern coast and advised fishermen operating in affected waters to return to shore.
Depression forms 860 km from Chennai
The weather system, which developed from a well-marked low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal, intensified into a depression on Sunday morning.
According to the IMD, it was centred over the southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal at 5.30am, near latitude 9.0°N and longitude 86.9°E.
The depression was located approximately 860 km east-southeast of Chennai, 1,040 km south-southeast of Visakhapatnam, 1,160 km south-southeast of Gopalpur in Odisha and 700 km west-southwest of Sri Vijaya Puram in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
The system is expected to continue moving north-northwestwards, developing into a cyclonic storm over the central parts of the south and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal on Nov 16.
The IMD expects it to strengthen into a severe cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal on Nov 17.
How strong could the cyclone become?
The IMD’s forecast indicates successive stages of intensification through Nov 19.
The depression had maximum sustained surface winds of 40–50 kmph, gusting to 60 kmph, on Sunday morning.
By 5.30pm on Monday, the system is forecast to reach cyclonic storm intensity, with sustained winds of 75–85 kmph and gusts of up to 95 kmph.
The department expects sustained winds of 90–100 kmph, gusting to 110 kmph, by Tuesday evening, when the system is forecast to reach severe cyclonic storm intensity.
By Thursday morning, the IMD projects winds of 120–130 kmph, gusting to 145 kmph, corresponding to a very severe cyclonic storm.
Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal face rainfall warnings
The IMD has forecast light to moderate rainfall at many places along coastal Andhra Pradesh on Nov 18, with isolated heavy rainfall.
North coastal Andhra Pradesh could receive heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places on Nov 19.
In Odisha, heavy rainfall is forecast at isolated locations on Nov 18, followed by heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places on Nov 19 and 20.
Gangetic West Bengal is also likely to receive light to moderate rainfall at many places, with isolated heavy rainfall on Nov 19 and 20.
The Andaman and Nicobar Islands are expected to experience light to moderate rainfall at most places, with isolated heavy rainfall through Nov 16.
Fishermen advised to return as sea conditions deteriorate
The IMD has advised fishermen already at sea to return to the coast by Nov 15.
It has warned against fishing in the Andaman Sea and waters around the Andaman and Nicobar Islands until Nov 17, the southwest Bay of Bengal from Nov 15 to 18, and the central Bay of Bengal from Nov 16 to 20.
The warning also covers the southeast Bay of Bengal until Nov 17 and the northwest Bay of Bengal on Nov 19 and 20.
Sea conditions over the central Bay of Bengal are expected to deteriorate from rough to very rough on November 16 to high or very high on Nov 17 and 18.
The IMD forecasts very high to phenomenal sea conditions from Nov 19 for the following 24 hours.
Fisheries departments and fishing harbour authorities have been advised to alert fishermen and monitor subsequent marine warnings.
Shipping, port and offshore operators have also been advised to review their preparedness and monitor forecasts for possible restrictions on weather-sensitive activities.
Where is the cyclone expected to make landfall?
The IMD’s Nov 15 forecast gives the system’s expected position and intensity through Nov 19 but does not establish a confirmed landfall location or time.
The department’s tropical weather outlook also notes considerable differences among forecast models over the system’s subsequent movement, intensification and landfall location.
Most models cited in that outlook indicate a north-northwestward movement towards the north Andhra Pradesh coast, although the precise landfall location remains uncertain.
The IMD’s projected position for Nov 19 is over the west-central Bay of Bengal, with further updates needed to establish the system’s eventual coastal crossing. - The Statesman/ANN
