JAKARTA (Bloomberg): The ultimate target of President Prabowo Subianto’s shakeup at the top of Indonesian politics may be the man who helped propel him to power after leading the country for a decade: ex-President Joko Widodo.
The resignation Thursday of his eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, as vice president strips Widodo of his most important remaining foothold in Prabowo’s administration. It also gives Prabowo control over the shortlist for Gibran’s successor, helping him shape the vice presidency and the contest for power in 2029.
"Nobody can beat Prabowo except Jokowi,” Made Supriatma, visiting fellow in the Indonesia Studies Programme at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, said. "So just get rid of Jokowi and his family forever.”
Alliance Unravels
The departure further unravels an alliance forged after Prabowo lost the 2014 and 2019 presidential elections to Jokowi, as the former president is popularly known. Jokowi later appointed his rival as defense minister, a role that helped Prabowo bolster his profile ahead of the 2024 election, when Jokowi was constitutionally barred from seeking a third term.
Gibran, 39, then joined Prabowo’s ticket after the Constitutional Court, at the time led by Jokowi’s brother-in-law, created an exception to the minimum age requirement for presidential and vice presidential candidates. The ticket allowed Prabowo to capitalize on Jokowi’s immense popularity and signaled continuity between the former president, who presided over a decade of roughly 5% annual growth, and the incoming administration.
Since taking office, however, Prabowo has increasingly put his own stamp on the government. His agenda has eclipsed some Jokowi priorities, including the former president’s signature plan to build a new capital in Borneo.
Prabowo’s approval rating has also fallen, from more than 80% in late 2025 to 44.5% in a recent poll, while the rupiah hit a record low on Thursday and is Asia’s worst-performing currency this year.
Indonesian stocks, meanwhile, are the world’s worst-performing over the same period after MSCI Inc. said it could reclassify the country as a standalone market over governance concerns. Still, the benchmark stock index closed 2.7% higher after Gibran’s resignation and gained another 1.15% by the midday pause Friday.
The break with the Jokowi era has unfolded through personnel as well as policy.
In 2025, Prabowo replaced veteran Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, who had served under Jokowi and was widely trusted by investors, while in a reshuffle last month, he moved Jokowi’s former state secretary, Pratikno, into an advisory role and replaced National Police chief Listyo Sigit Prabowo, a Jokowi appointee. Listyo, who worked with Jokowi for more than a decade, was arrested last week on allegations he was involved in illegally wiretapping the president.
"The decision to not just rid the government of Jokowi’s son and a few loyalists, but to also go after Listyo with such aggression, and to begin a purge of sorts, is surprising,” said Eve Warburton, a senior lecturer at the Australian National University’s Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs. The moves suggest that Prabowo may want to use the wiretapping case "as a pretext for expanding military influence over the police and perhaps over government more broadly,” she said.
Gibran’s own position came under acute pressure after the Supreme Court invalidated a state-approved equivalency certificate he’d used to show he met the education requirement for the 2024 election. Although Gibran holds a university degree and initially said he would fight the allegations, he resigned less than two weeks after the ruling.
"Gibran’s resignation caps a series of demotions and removals of key Jokowi allies, widening the rift between Jokowi and Prabowo, whose alliance was integral to Prabowo’s election,” Laura Schwartz, senior Asia analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft, said. "Remaining coalition heavyweights are now likely to scramble for influence.”
Jokowi, speaking briefly with reporters on Thursday in his hometown of Solo, said that he remained supportive of Prabowo and that he had advised Gibran that "position is temporary.”
"Political positions will always involve political dynamics,” he said.
The Government Communication Agency said state institutions continued to function normally.
Prabowo Consolidates
The rupture comes at a politically delicate moment for Prabowo, not least because of voter dissatisfaction with some of his signature spending programs.
Small protests have flared in Jakarta and elsewhere. After Listyo’s arrest, the military mobilized nearly 21,000 Navy personnel for security in Jakarta, deploying almost 8,000 and placing more than 13,000 on standby. Military officials described the move as routine, although some analysts saw it as a precaution against possible action by factions within the police.
Still, analysts don’t expect the change in the vice presidency itself to usher in a new wave of instability.
"Politically, it will make Prabowo stronger,” said Wijayanto Samirin, an economist at Paramadina University.
Indeed, the wiretapping case has generated public sympathy for the president and helped him justify a consolidation that began with the latest cabinet reshuffle, Wijayanto said. He expects Prabowo to continue changing the leadership of the National Police and military and replacing Jokowi-linked figures in the cabinet with people he trusts.
Gibran "is not popular and had no real power anyway,” Warburton said, adding that protests are more likely to be driven by concerns about inflation, fuel shortages, land fires and poor governance. If unrest grows, a key question will be how far the president is willing to go to contain it, she said.
"Prabowo gets deeply anxious about protests, given the unrest he witnessed in 1998 and his own failed attempts to repress those protests,” she said, referring to the demonstrations that helped bring down longtime leader Suharto.
Gibran’s exit is likely to affect the political balance far more than economic policy, given Prabowo’s dominance and the vice president’s limited role.
"Gibran’s departure is unlikely to destabilize the Prabowo administration,” said Dedi Dinarto, associate director at strategic advisory firm FGS Global. "If anything, it gives Prabowo greater room to consolidate power and manage the selection of a new vice-president with an eye on the 2029 presidential election.”
Dinarto said state-led development, resource nationalism and Danantara’s central role in managing state assets and strategic investments are unlikely to change materially.
Jokowi’s Next Move
One of the clearest symbols of Prabowo’s divergence from Jokowi is Nusantara, the multibillion-dollar undertaking to move the capital from the Jakarta metropolitan area to Borneo. Construction continues and the government is still allocating money to the project, but it has lost much of the political prominence and funding it enjoyed under Jokowi.
Even if Prabowo "didn’t say it out loud, he already stopped that project,” Supriatma said. "He’s also moved away from Jokowi’s policies on mining, forestry, the economy.”
"The previous administration was seen as very friendly to foreign investors, even though it amounted to a total surrender to foreign capital,” he added. "Now it’s the opposite; it’s very hostile to foreign investors.”
Government officials have repeatedly rejected that characterization, saying Indonesia welcomes international investors, though the administration has also insisted that Indonesians should be the beneficiaries of the country’s resources. The economy expanded roughly 5.5% in the third quarter from a year earlier despite the impact of higher energy prices, and foreign direct investment is rising.
Gibran’s resignation doesn’t necessarily end Jokowi’s political relevance. The former president retains a nationally recognized political brand and has joined the Indonesian Solidarity Party, or PSI, which is chaired by his younger son, Kaesang Pangarep. But PSI has no seats in parliament.
"In politics, politicians might have a second or a third life,” said Wijayanto. "However, this time is different for Jokowi’s clan, since they have lost all the key supporters including those in the government, the National Police, the local government and the business community. More importantly, the family has lost the trust of the public.”
--With assistance from Grace Sihombing and Adrian Kennedy. -- ©2026 Bloomberg L.P.
