SEOUL: North Korea is testing new weapons systems at twice the pace of President Donald Trump’s first term, ranging from missiles designed to strike the US and its allies to anti-aircraft systems.
The number of launch events this year had topped 20 as of Sunday (Nov 8), second only to the pace in 2022, when North Korea embarked on a testing spree as it began supplying weapons for Russia’s war against Ukraine.
The number of launches since Trump began his second term is already more than double the 17 recorded at the same point of his first term, according to data compiled by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
With Trump preparing for an Asia trip, North Korea has carried out four weapons tests in the past two weeks alone, underscoring how much higher the bar has become for leader Kim Jong Un to make concessions in any negotiations with the US - particularly after the Republican Party suffered major setbacks in last week’s midterm elections.
"Missile testing is expensive, and Kim now has far more resources to fund it - boosted by revenue from supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine and crypto thefts,” said Adam Farrar, a former director on the US National Security Council covering Korea in both the Trump and Biden administrations. "The result is a set of systems that could be significantly harder for regional air and missile defences to defeat.”
More targeting options
Compared with 2017, when Trump threatened to unleash "fire and fury” against Kim, the North Korean leader’s arsenal has grown and become significantly diversified.
It now features dispersal warheads, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, drones and what North Korea claims to be a hypersonic weapons system. The push to upgrade the country’s conventional arsenal marks a departure from Kim’s earlier strategy of going all-in on strategic weapons designed to threaten the US mainland.
"The regime appears focused on testing and potentially fielding a more capable generation of close- and short-range ballistic missiles that would give it more targeting options in any conflict,” said Farrar, now a senior analyst at Bloomberg Economics.
While questions linger about the reliability of these weapons, Kim’s ability to normalise the testing of weapons of mass destruction is itself an achievement, said Jenny Town, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center.
"The idea that they can do this level of testing and it’s barely a blip on the radar even if it’s being tracked by military sources and intelligence sources says a lot about how much we’ve come to terms with the idea that North Korea has nuclear weapons and is capable of doing these things,” she said.
In the run-up to the midterms, Trump initially floated renewed US outreach to North Korea before shifting tack last month, when he played down expectations for engagement. Trump said he was "not sure that anybody’s asking for a meeting.”
There’s little indication Kim is willing to meet with Trump again anytime soon. But Trump may try to capitalise on his broad authority over foreign policy now that Democrats have won control of Congress and are expected to fight him at home.
China last week confirmed that it was in contact with the US and Russia about a potential trilateral meeting between their leaders at the APEC summit in Shenzhen in what would be an unprecedented huddle between the three nuclear powers.
Since his last meeting with Trump in 2019, Kim has managed to bolster ties with two of those leaders, emerging as a key ally of President Vladimir Putin in his war against Ukraine and using that partnership to strengthen his relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
"North Korea has indicated a summit is possible, but US policy changes are a precondition for talks,” Town said. "Essentially, North Korea is willing to accept a better relationship with the US but isn’t willing to negotiate for it.” - Bloomberg
