The era when the three joint communiques set the terms of US-China relations may have “completely come to an end”, a prominent Chinese analyst has warned.
Zhu Feng, dean of Nanjing University’s School of International Studies, also said that it might be “unrealistic” to expect Beijing and Washington to reach a comprehensive political understanding on Taiwan, given US domestic politics.
Following Chinese President Xi Jinping’s highly anticipated summit with US counterpart Donald Trump earlier this month, Beijing announced that the leaders had agreed to build a “constructive relationship of strategic stability”, calling it a major milestone.
The White House later echoed the phrase, adding that it should operate “on the basis of fairness and reciprocity”.
According to Zhu, this demonstrated a mutual effort to align their perceptions and policy frameworks, effectively laying fresh groundwork for future ties.
“The substantive normative effect of the three joint communiques on China-US relations has completely come to an end,” he said during an online seminar hosted by the Macau Centre for Regional and Strategic Studies on Friday to review Trump’s visit to Beijing.
The most important aspect of current bilateral interactions was no longer whether the two sides could produce new communiques or joint statements, Zhu said.
Rather, what mattered was how Beijing and Washington could achieve constructive outcomes on specific policies via pragmatic exchanges, he asserted, saying they had entered a “structural, long-term and strategic” competition.
Signed in 1972, 1978 and 1982, the three Sino-US joint communiques have formed the political foundation of relations between Beijing and Washington.
At their core, the agreements have collectively defined the framework through which both sides handle Taiwan, which has been one of the most persistent and intractable problems between Beijing and Washington since 1949.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary.
Most countries, including the United States, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-ruled island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons under the Taiwan Relations Act.
In the 1972 Shanghai Communique, which established the ground rules for Beijing-Washington cooperation, “the United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China”.
Washington then formally shifted its diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in the 1979 communique, but the US Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act the same year.
Under the third and, so far, final communique with Beijing, signed in August 1982, the US government said it “intends gradually to reduce its sale of arms to Taiwan, leading, over a period of time, to a final resolution”.
However, while concluding negotiations with Beijing over the statement, former US president Ronald Reagan’s administration issued “Six Assurances” to Taiwan, pledging that Washington would continue backing the island’s security.
Those assurances’ formal content was adopted by both chambers of the US Congress in non-binding resolutions in 2016.
According to Zhu, it would be “completely unrealistic” to expect a Sino-US leadership summit to secure a US commitment to fully rule out support for Taiwan or to stop arms sales to it.
The crux of the issue lay in US domestic politics, he said, adding that American politicians had long used Taiwan as a crucial lever to score political points and build their reputations on policy toward Beijing.
“Can we now expect China and the US to reach a comprehensive political understanding or a new political consensus on the Taiwan question?” Zhu asked. “Personally, I think there is no realistic possibility of that.”
Referring to Trump’s remarks that he was “not looking to have somebody go independent” or looking to “travel 9,500 miles (about 15,300km) to fight a war”, Zhu said it was “already quite good” for the US leader to say that much.
On Thursday, the acting US navy secretary, Hung Cao, said a US$14 billion weapons sale to Taiwan was on “pause” owing to domestic munition demands, though the Pentagon later clarified that the final decision rested with Trump.
In response, Beijing on Friday said that its “firm opposition” to US arms sales to Taiwan was “consistent, clear and unwavering”.
During his talks with Trump on May 14, Xi said that “the Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-US relations”. He also emphasised that safeguarding peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait was the “biggest common denominator” between Beijing and Washington.
Zhu said Beijing was taking a “constructive” approach: the “biggest common denominator” was a “flexible” notion and sent an important signal to Washington that Beijing was not in a hurry to pursue reunification by force unless Taiwan independence forces crossed the red line. -- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
