MANILA: The Philippine Senate was due to convene as an impeachment court on Monday (May 18) that could decide the future of Vice President Sara Duterte, with a heated battle between two rival political camps set to be front and centre in the trial.
The impeachment trial will be a high-stakes event that could either kill off Duterte's 2028 presidential hopes, or strengthen her position as lead contender to succeed her bitter rival, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, who is constitutionally barred from running again.
It comes against a turbulent political backdrop, just days after chaos and a shootout in the upper house and a potentially decisive change in its leadership, both stemming from the re-emergence from hiding of a pro-Duterte senator wanted by the International Criminal Court.
Just as lawmakers prepared to vote to impeach Duterte in the lower house on May 11, politician Ronald "Bato" dela Rosa reappeared to cast a crucial Senate vote to install Duterte loyalist Alan Peter Cayetano as Senate president, effectively making Cayetano the presiding officer for the impeachment trial.
Big test for Duterte
Duterte is undergoing her biggest political test and faces a ban from holding office if convicted in the trial, which comes as her father, former President Rodrigo Duterte, awaits his own trial at the ICC over his deadly "war on drugs".
Sara Duterte, 47, is accused of misusing public funds, amassing unexplained wealth and threatening the lives of Marcos, the first lady and a former House speaker. She denies wrongdoing.
It is unclear when the trial will start. Marcos has distanced himself from her impeachment, saying it is a legislative matter.
Marcos and Duterte are both scions of powerful political families who ran together in the 2022 election. But cracks soon appeared in their alliance, leading to an acrimonious fallout and Marcos handing her father over to the ICC.
Analysts say the Senate leadership change triggered by dela Rosa's return may have shifted the balance of power in a chamber that counts Duterte loyalists and aligned politicians among its 24 members, who will serve as jurors.
A conviction requires two-thirds support.
"Given that we now have a new majority, thanks to the efforts of Senator Bato, it would make prosecuting Vice President Sara in the impeachment court a little more difficult," said Ederson Tapia, public administration professor at the University of Makati.
Fugitive Senator's dramatic return
Dela Rosa's return from six months in hiding created drama that has gripped the Philippines, with the former police chief taking refuge for days in the heavily guarded Senate before a warning of his imminent arrest led to pandemonium, gunfire and his escape hours later.
As chief enforcer of the former president's drugs crackdown, dela Rosa, 64, is accused of crimes against humanity. The Marcos administration on Friday confirmed it will seek his arrest.
Dela Rosa, whose whereabouts are unknown, denies wrongdoing and has sought a Supreme Court injunction to block his arrest, arguing there is no legal basis to serve a warrant from a foreign court. The solicitor-general rejects that. - Reuters
