NEW DELHI: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party is leading its rival in early vote counts and appears on course to secure its first-ever victory in West Bengal, a result that could bolster his standing as the country’s most popular leader.
The Bharatiya Janata Party is leading in 111 seats in the state legislature, while incumbent Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress is ahead in 69, according to Election Commission data.
A party needs 148 seats to secure a majority in the 294-member assembly. Most television channels showed the BJP crossing the majority mark. These are early trends and may shift as counting continues.
West Bengal was the highest-profile contest among the five regions that went to the polls in April. Both parties mounted an aggressive campaign in the state, which has the third-highest representation in the lower house of the national parliament.
Investors are also watching closely for results in Tamil Nadu, the opposition-controlled southern state, which is home to car factories, electronics manufacturing and key facilities for Apple Inc.’s iPhone production.
Early Election Commission data pointed to a surprise, with the incumbent Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam trailing the newly-formed Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, founded by actor-turned-politician C. Joseph Vijay in February 2024.
The TVK is ahead in 102 seats, while the DMK is leading in 39, with a party needing 118 seats to secure a majority and form the government.
If Modi’s lead persists in West Bengal, he would not only end Banerjee’s 15-year rule in the eastern state but also expand the BJP’s reach beyond its traditional strongholds in northern and western India.
It would also help to strengthen the prime minister’s hand as he grapples with economic pressures triggered by the Iran conflict. India is heavily reliant on energy supplies from the Middle East and has been hit by gas shortages and surging oil costs.
The rupee gained as much as 0.1 per cent against the dollar on Monday - its biggest rise in a week - while bonds advanced for the first time in five days.
Indian stocks also climbed, supported by a broader regional tech-led rally and optimism after Modi’s party led early polling.
Adani Group companies, which have aligned themselves closely with the prime minister’s development goals, jumped, with flagship Adani Enterprises rising as much as 3.7 per cent to its highest level since November.
The campaign in West Bengal was dominated by controversial changes to voter rolls, which the opposition said Modi’s party was using to tilt the election in his favour.
Known as the Special Intensive Revision, the exercise overshadowed traditional campaign issues such as jobs and inflation.
Modi’s party also made a strong push to win women voters by promising to double cash handouts. Ahead of the election, it renewed efforts to expand parliament and reserve at least a third of seats for women.
Although the proposal was defeated by the opposition, Modi used it to portray rival parties as against women’s empowerment. The party also raised concerns about women’s safety under Banerjee, highlighting a 2024 rape case at a Kolkata medical college.
West Bengal results matter not just for the state but for national politics, as they could set the tone for national elections in 2029, said Priyankar Upadhyaya, a political analyst and Unesco chair professor of peace at Banaras Hindu University.
"This election, in particular, was fought with unusual aggression and intensity, as West Bengal is still seen as a citadel of the opposition,” he said.
A win in West Bengal would solidify Modi’s popularity and mark a turnaround from two years ago when the BJP failed to secure a majority in the general election.
Turnout in the election was unusually high at over 90 per cent as hundreds of thousands of Bengali workers across the country made the trip home to cast their ballots, concerned they may lose access to benefits after the voter revision exercise.
The Election Commission removed about nine million names from the rolls, saying the move was aimed at removing duplicate entries and illegal migrants.
Opposition groups alleged that Modi’s Hindu-nationalist party used the exercise to target mainly poor and Muslim voters.
"For the BJP, a loss in Bengal - despite an aggressive campaign and institutional advantages - would highlight the limits of its Hindutva-driven ideology and expansion strategy,” wrote Chetna Kumar, Bloomberg’s geoeconomics analyst for South Asia.
"For Banerjee, the stakes are higher: retaining power is central to sustaining her national ambitions and positioning her as a credible challenger to Modi in 2029.”
The Election Commission is also counting votes for the states of Assam and Kerala, which went to the polls in April.
In Assam, early counting trends showed the BJP-led alliance on its way to win a third consecutive term, paving the way for Himanta Biswa Sarma to continue as chief minister.
The party focused its campaign on security and illegal migration from neighbouring Bangladesh, while promising increased spending on development projects.
Kerala, which has a history of alternating governments, showed early trends with an alliance led by the Indian National Congress ahead of the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led coalition, potentially marking its first win since 2016.
The BJP remains a minor player in the state and failed to win a seat in the 2021 assembly elections. - Bloomberg
