SOUTH-EAST ASIA (Bernama): The gravity of a crisis is rarely understood until it intrudes and profoundly affects our daily lives.
It is somewhat startling, therefore, when a major fuel distributor in Malaysia announced that some of its stations might face temporary supply shortages last Thursday.
Coupled with rising prices, especially for food items due to higher diesel prices, it raises deep concerns over one’s purchasing power if the situation deteriorates further.
It is clear that the fallout from the West Asian conflict is no longer a phenomenon happening in another part of the world and affecting only others.
As much as we might want to deny it, the adverse effects are immediate and personal - and shockingly at our doorstep.
This was undeniably one such reality check.
As if this was not enough, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), on the same day, poured cold water on the situation when it declared that the global economy is facing renewed strain from the war between the United States (US) and Iran.
Even worse, the Washington-based financial institution estimated that a staggering sum of up to US$50 billion (US$1 = RM3.98) in financial support may be needed to help vulnerable countries weather the ensuing economic shock.
IMF Managing director Kristalina Georgieva painted a grim picture when she said the war triggered a large, global and uneven supply shock, disrupting energy flows, pushing up prices and straining supply chains worldwide.
The fund also said it is set to cut its global growth outlook in its next review, all of which is not good news for an export-oriented economy like Malaysia.
In January, the IMF had projected global growth of 3.3 per cent this year. The eurozone was forecast to accelerate by 1.3 per cent and the United States by 2.4 per cent.
In Malaysia, pump prices, though subsidised for consumers, have already skyrocketed, further burdening government coffers.
In its latest announcement, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) said that while the subsidised RON95 price under the BUDI95 programme remains at RM1.99 per litre for April 9 to 15, the unsubsidised retail price has risen by 40 sen to RM4.27 per litre.
This translates to more than a 50 per cent subsidy.
For instance, 30 litres of RON95 will cost RM128.10 without subsidy, but Malaysians need only pay RM59.70, with the remaining RM68.40 borne by the government.
For diesel, the subsidised retail price in Sabah, Sarawak and Labuan remains at RM2.15 per litre, while the unsubsidised price in Peninsular Malaysia has increased by 70 sen to RM6.72 per litre.
The increase in these numbers is beyond the comprehension of most Malaysians who have enjoyed relatively low fuel prices almost all their lives.
I am one of them. Personally, I never thought pump prices in Malaysia could spiral to such high levels within such a short period of time.
The good news is that our banks are well capitalised and the economy, so far, remains resilient.
But a prolonged war would warrant the government reassessing its budget, especially its subsidy spending, which has hit RM6 billion a month, up from RM700 million since the war began six weeks ago.
Even the most robust domestic policies can be undermined by external shocks.
In such a scenario, routine commuters may need to give it a second thought and alter travel plans, and for many of us, household budgets must be recalibrated as well.
Like others in the region, the government’s call for prudence and conservation measures may seem to be a cliché.
They could be struggling to resonate with the general public, and even worse, the authorities themselves could be an easy target for criticism.
But the fact remains that one cannot deny the reality hitting every economy with the consequent fallout.
This is especially true in view of the complexities underpinning a global fuel crisis, which extends far beyond any government’s control.
Geopolitical tensions, fragile supply chains and protracted conflicts all contribute to a volatile energy landscape.
One must bear in mind that the economic supply chain is yet to fully recover from the devastating COVID-19 health pandemic in 2020.
The situation thereafter was made worse, not least by the shocking reciprocal tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on his trading partners, including Malaysia.
Now, having initiated the war with Iran, calls for a ceasefire and stability continue to echo across international platforms and among world leaders.
However, against a backdrop of diplomatic posturing and entrenched self-interests, such resolutions often appear frustratingly out of reach.
The "brouhaha” surrounding global negotiations will continue to dominate headlines.
But for the average citizen in Malaysia, what matters most now is how much the ringgit can be stretched.
It is not the time for a blame game, as crises, by their very nature, test the resolve of both the government and its citizens.
Recall how we came together during COVID-19 to support one another and do what was necessary, like wearing masks and keeping our distance, while the government worked through the bigger challenges of sustaining the economy and securing vaccines.
The same modus operandi applies. Different scenario? Yes, but the remedy is the same, as systematic solutions take time.
Hence, instead of wasting energy on finger-pointing, there is value in cultivating a shared sense of accountability.
On their part, governments must continue to communicate transparently and act decisively within their means, while citizens, as end users, can contribute through conscious consumption.
History has shown that even the most entrenched conflicts can find a resolution, albeit slowly and imperfectly, but a solution nevertheless.
Until then, the fuel crisis serves both as a challenge and a reminder that in a globalised world, crises such as this are never truly distant events.
They are already affecting most countries worldwide, and Malaysia is not spared.
To counter this, a unified common ground is a vital antidote to enhance the nation’s resilience, which rightly begins with the people and at home.
-- BERNAMA
