Hong Kong’s property transactions crossed 7,000 for the sixth consecutive month in March – the first time in four years that monthly volumes stayed above this level – despite a slight fall last month, according to official data.
Residential transactions declined by about 5.3 per cent to 6,316 from a month earlier, while their month-on-month value decreased by 4.19 per cent to HK$55.18 billion (US$7.04 billion), according to data from the Land Registry on Thursday.
New and lived-in home sales accounted for about 82 per cent of the total real estate turnover last month.
Overall deals, including offices, shops, industrial spaces and car parking spaces, declined by 2.4 per cent to 7,737 in March from the previous month, while the value was largely flat at HK$62.31 billion, the data showed.
However, on an annual basis, the overall volume and value were up 16.2 per cent and 36.5 per cent, respectively.
Despite the month-on-month decline, analysts said that property demand in the city remained resilient amid the US-Israel war on Iran.
In the first quarter, overall property sales surged more than 46 per cent to nearly 23,300 from a year earlier, according to the South China Morning Post’s calculations. Total consideration for the period surged 64 per cent to HK$181.7 billion.
“In our view, the impact of the Middle East conflict should be limited,” said Kathy Chan, equity analyst at Morningstar. “In Hong Kong, residential transactions have remained strong in recent weeks, with buyers showing good appetite for recent project launches, which we think is partly supported by a lower Hibor [Hong Kong interbank offered rates] and elevated residential rents.”
However, the key risk was a potential rate hike by the US Federal Reserve as oil prices surge because of supply disruptions, “which could push mortgage rates in Hong Kong up and deter buyers – both occupiers and investors”, Chan added.
If this scenario plays out, it would lead to weaker transaction volumes and residential prices, she added.
“That said, this is not in our base case, as we expect the conflict to be resolved within the second quarter, and Brent prices should ease to around US$68 a barrel over a 12-month period,” Chan said.
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) recently warned of an uncertain direction in the US monetary policy, adding that the public “should carefully manage interest-rate risks when making decisions about property purchase, investment or borrowing”.
The HKMA’s statement came after the Fed kept its target rate unchanged in its latest meeting last month.
Hong Kong’s monetary policy moves in lockstep with the US to maintain the local currency’s peg to the dollar.
Some of the city’s top real estate agencies remain optimistic about the property market’s prospects.
Centaline Property Agency said it expected 8,000 deals in April amid a more active pipeline of new property launches by developers in the coming weeks. Similarly, Ricacorp Properties predicted more than 8,000 transactions this month.
The two most recent property launches late last month were both sold out on the first day. Buyers snapped up all 123 units made available by Henderson Land Development at Chester in Hung Hom in Kowloon, while the Sino Group-led La Mirabelle in Tseung Kwan O in the New Territories sold all 254 units on the day of the launch.
“This demonstrates that most buyers are optimistic about the market outlook,” said Derek Chan Hoi-chiu, head of research at Ricacorp. -- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
