Beijing is unlikely to attack Taiwan next year, given security and economic deterrents, including its belief that an amphibious assault could fail and that the technological, supply chain and investor costs would be huge, according to a US threat assessment released on Wednesday.
The intelligence overview appeared to walk back a projection by the Pentagon last year that Beijing wanted to take the self-governing island by force as early as 2027 and comes as US President Donald Trump takes a more conciliatory tone towards China.
Trump said on Tuesday that a planned summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing set for later this month would be postponed “a month or so” given the Israel-US war on Iran.
“Beijing probably will continue seeking to set the conditions for eventual unification with Taiwan short of conflict,” noted the 34-page report released annually on global risks facing the US. China has no immediate timeline for achieving unification, it added.
Tuesday’s unclassified version of the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Committee did not flesh out its reasoning, including any views on how the struggling Mainland economy might temper any attack on Taiwan, festering US-China trade ties or recent corruption investigations of top People’s Liberation Army commanders, including Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli.
During a Senate Select Committee on Intelligence hearing Wednesday about the report, senior US intelligence officials largely ignored its China content, spending much of their time sidestepping questions on whether Iran posed an imminent “nuclear” threat against the US. Trump has justified launching the war on that basis and has claimed no one briefed him that Tehran might retaliate and block the Strait of Hormuz.
At one point, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testified that Iran, alongside Russia, North Korea and China, were researching and developing novel, advanced or traditional missile systems “that put our homeland within range”.
The report, meanwhile, said the PLA is making “steady but uneven” progress even as China keeps its options open.
“Beijing almost certainly will consider a variety of factors in deciding whether and how to pursue military approaches to unification, including PLA readiness, the actions and politics of Taiwan, and whether or not the US will militarily intervene on Taiwan’s behalf,” it said.
Trump claims good rapport with Xi a major factor
Trump has credited his power and personal rapport with Xi for holding off any near-term attack on the democratic island, claiming last August that “he told me, ‘I will never do it as long as you’re president’”, a pledge Beijing has never confirmed.
According to the US intelligence community, Beijing will continue working to reduce the US military presence in the Indo-Pacific region and to strengthen its conventional, strategic and space forces and technological base.
China remains highly wary of the US, the report said, convinced Washington is intent on containing the Asian giant despite Trump’s efforts to bolster ties with Xi.
“Beijing has been deeply suspicious of Washington’s intentions and has long viewed the US as pursuing a coordinated effort to contain China’s development and rise, undermine Communist Party rule, and prevent the country from achieving its aims,” the report said.
Also on the intelligence community’s radar is China’s growing muscle in the Arctic and advances in low-cost drones “to stress US missile defences”.
The report cited growing Chinese interest in arms control discussions involving space weapons, something it attributed to Beijing’s likely belief that the US Golden Dome missile defence system “will reduce Washington’s threshold for initiating military action against Beijing in a crisis”.
AI and quantum computing will remain key areas of economic competition between the US and China. And even as various countries jump in to challenge US leadership, China remains the most capable as part of its goal to supplant the US by 2030, the report said.
“China is driving AI adoption at scale – both domestically and internationally – by using its sizeable talent pool, extensive data sets, government funding, and burgeoning global partnerships,” the intelligence assessment said.
The Trump administration document called out Beijing for its hacking and ransomware activities. “China is the most active and persistent cyber threat to US government, private-sector and critical infrastructure networks,” it stated.
The report noted that China continues to seek political and military control over its “claimed territory” in the South China Sea through persistent military and coastguard patrols, as well as diplomatic and legal initiatives, such as the creation of a nature reserve that foreigners must seek permission to enter.
Beijing exerting ongoing ‘coercive pressure’ on Japan
On the eve of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s summit with Trump in Washington on Thursday, the report noted Beijing’s ongoing “coercive pressure” on Japan after Takaichi’s comments last year that a potential Mainland attack on Taiwan was an existential issue.
This pressure is likely to intensify in 2026, aimed “both at punishing Japan and deterring other countries from making similar statements about their potential involvement in a Taiwan crisis”, the assessment said. “China probably is concerned that Prime Minister Takaichi’s comments will bolster Taiwan’s independence movement.”
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US and Japan, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state. But Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed by law to supplying it with weapons.
The Chinese embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment. -- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
