The US-Israeli war on Iran could prove difficult to end in the short term, with Israel expected to continue to “fan the flames”, Chinese experts have warned.
However, they still believe that the intense back-and-forth attacks and high tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are unlikely to last. They also reject the notion that a prolonged Middle East conflict involving the United States would benefit Beijing.
It has been 12 days since the US and Israel launched joint air strikes on Iran on February 28, killing the Islamic Republic’s former supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The conflict is now on track to surpass Iran’s 12-day war with Israel last June, which was joined later by the United States.
Tehran on Tuesday reported that over 1,300 civilians had been killed in the current conflict, as Washington confirmed that about 140 US troops had been injured, a day after announcing the death of its seventh service member.
The fighting has now spread across the region. Iran has launched retaliatory strikes on US military assets in neighbouring countries, whose officials report that civilian facilities have been hit.
Iraq and Lebanon, both home to Iran-linked Shia militias, have become proxy battlegrounds, as Israel intensifies operations in Lebanese capital Beirut targeting the Shia Islamist group Hezbollah while Iran-backed groups in Iraq launch attacks on US bases.
Jodie Wen, assistant research fellow at the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University in Beijing, cautioned about the risks of a prolonged conflict. “Unless Washington and Tehran immediately return to the negotiating table and signal an agreement ... I think the conflict could be unlikely to stop in at least another two weeks,” she warned.
However, she noted that the high-intensity conflict seen so far was unlikely to be sustained for long and also that the US was likely to have anticipated a swift victory and had been caught off-guard.
“Iran’s retaliation may have exceeded [US President Donald Trump’s] expectations,” she said. “After around 10 days of back-and-forth exchanges, I think Trump now realises that.”
She added that Iran would also have little interest in a drawn-out conflict. “First of all, this war was not initiated by Iran. Iran had no intention of starting it.”
But Israel could stand out as a key source of instability going forward, Wen warned.
“The US and Iran may both want to de-escalate the situation ... but Israel could go on to fan the flames between them. I think Israel could be the biggest uncertainty.”
Zhang Chuchu, deputy director of the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, also believes that Israel’s stance could be a “critical” factor.
“Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems determined to continue weakening Iran and is unwilling to pull back at this stage,” she said.
“This puts Trump in a tough spot: even if he considers ending the war quickly, the circumstances make it difficult for him to do so.”
She also warned that the war could drag on and there was little room for negotiations to bring an end to the conflict.
“During previous nuclear talks, Iran showed a willingness to compromise, but Washington’s sudden attack on Iran destroyed the foundation for further negotiations or ending the war at the table,” Zhang said.
Early on February 28, Omani mediators reported that indirect nuclear talks between Iran and the US were nearing a breakthrough, with Tehran agreeing never to stockpile enriched uranium. But hours later, the US-Israel strikes began.
Israel insists that it is not seeking prolonged conflict but will stop only when “appropriate”.
Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said in Jerusalem on Tuesday that the country was “not looking for an endless war”, but added: “We will continue until the minute that we and our partners think that it is appropriate to stop.”
Meanwhile, US news website Axios reported on Tuesday, citing three anonymous sources, that the Trump administration had asked Israel not to carry out further strikes on Iran’s energy facilities, particularly its oil infrastructure.
How long the war would last could largely depend on Trump, said Zhou Rong, director of the Global South Countries Studies Centre at Grandview Institution, a Beijing-based think tank.
Trump might not have anticipated how sustained strikes on Iran could damage the US’ global image and deplete its national strength, Zhou said. “He may now be recalculating [the situation].”
Niu Xinchun, a prominent Chinese expert on Middle East politics and China-Arab relations, said that Trump could declare “victory” whenever he chose, but the underlying issues would fester.
“If the costs – regional instability, domestic opposition, economic burden – become too high, he will end it,” said Niu, who is a vice-president at Ningxia University.
“He knows the larger goals, like regime change or installing a pro‑US government in Iran, are impossible.”
“The war could be declared over at any moment. But such an end would be superficial. The fundamental issues remain unresolved, leaving greater uncertainty for the Middle East.”
Some observers have argued that a protracted conflict in the Middle East would benefit China by diverting US military resources away from the Indo-Pacific and weakening efforts to contain Beijing.
Niu said such arguments were “unconvincing”. “China’s economy is now deeply integrated with Gulf states, so any instability in the region harms China’s interests directly. It is wrong to say China is the biggest beneficiary,” he noted.
Trump has sent out mixed signals on how long the US offensive might last. On Monday, he first said US objectives were nearly met and the conflict was nearing an end only to declare hours later that “We’re going to go further.”
He also claimed the hostilities would end “very soon”, but ruled out this week.
The deadly US-Israeli strikes have prompted Iran to impose a de facto transit ban on vessels “associated with the aggressors” through the Strait of Hormuz. Just 39km (24 miles) wide at its narrowest point, the waterway carries about a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade, plus vital liquefied natural gas and fertiliser shipments.
The resulting oil price surge threatens to undermine Trump’s inflation-curbing efforts, with high-stakes midterm elections just eight months away.
Zhang at Fudan said the strait closure was unlikely to last long, as it was a “lose-lose situation” for all.
“For Iran, fully blocking the Strait of Hormuz would lead to significant economic losses, making it a costly move for its own interests,” she said.
China, one of its largest users, has called for an immediate halt to military operations.
“China urges parties to stop the military operations at once, avoid further escalation, and prevent the regional turmoil from having a larger impact on global economic growth,” foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said on Tuesday.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis is also delivering a heavy blow to US allies – including Gulf oil producers and Asian importers like Japan and South Korea.
That could put significant pressure on the Trump administration, said She Gangzheng, an associate professor of international relations at Tsinghua University.
“If the war persists, it may inflict less damage on America’s adversaries than its allies,” he warned.
Iran was likely to insist on dictating the war’s end on its own terms, driven by deepening scepticism towards the US and Israel, She said.
“This time, it may not be simply a matter of Trump deciding when to stop and Iran following along.”
Statements from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have appeared to corroborate that view.
“It is we who will determine the end of the war ... The Americans will not be the ones to end the war,” IRGC spokesman Ali Mohammad Naini was quoted as saying by Iran’s Tasnim news agency on Tuesday.
-- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
