China may surpass the US as the world’s biggest economy in a decade, and it could attempt to take Taiwan by force even though the US is likely to remain the strongest military power, a Washington-based think tank found in a survey with hundreds of geopolitical forecasters.
58 per cent of surveyed experts believed that China will be the world’s top economic power by 2036, while 33 per cent expected the US to maintain its economic dominance, according to a report published on Tuesday by the Atlantic Council.
Experts are split on whether the US or China will lead in technological innovation and diplomatic influence, indicating that they could be “peer competitors” in these areas, according to the report.
The US held a narrow lead in both domains with 47 per cent believing it will be the largest technological power in 2036, with China trailing at 44 per cent. 38 per cent and 33 per cent of experts respectively expected the US and China to have a lead in diplomatic influence.
“I think we underestimate China’s strengths and ambitions at our peril,” Melanie Hart, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, said at an event in Washington on Tuesday. “I would say that across the board we are still ahead, but we have almost zero margin for error.”
Surveyed analysts, however, overwhelmingly expected the US to remain as the dominant military power, with nearly 73 per cent of them perceiving so and only 24 per cent expecting the same for China.
In spite of that, 70 per cent of the polled analysts believed that China will attempt to take Taiwan by force within the next decade, up from 65 per cent last year and 50 per cent in 2024. Beijing views the self-ruled island as a part of China and has repeatedly pledged to reunite it by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.
But Hart indicated that the possibility of China making a move in the near term is lower than a year ago.
“They seem to have the feeling at this moment in time that maybe time is actually on their side, and if they wait things out, Taiwan will evolve in a direction that brings it closer to China, and there’s no need to move in the near term,” she said.
“But I think we have to be aware that at least for the next probably two to five years, Beijing’s focus is going to be looking for every opportunity to erode Taiwan’s national position and make the island feel isolated,” Hart said. “We have to be very vigilant for that.”
The think tank’s report polled 447 “geostrategists and foresight practitioners” from various types of organisations from the private sector, government, non-profit or academic institutions. More than half of them are in the US, and about 75 per cent of them are male and aged over 50, according to the Atlantic Council.
More than 40 per cent of respondents envisioned another world war within the next 10 years, and 43 per cent within this group expected the likely trigger to be in Taiwan or the East and South China Seas, according to the report. -- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
