MANILA: Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr (pic) is facing impeachment over allegations ranging from how the transfer of former president Rodrigo Duterte to the International Criminal Court (ICC) was handled, to claims of kickbacks linked to flood-control projects.
While the impeachment complaint, the first against Marcos, is widely expected to fail, analysts say its filing is politically significant, as it could weaken Marcos’ standing.
The complaint, filed on Jan 19 by lawyer Andre de Jesus and endorsed by lawmaker Jett Nisay, accuses Marcos of culpable violation of the Constitution, graft and corruption, and betrayal of public trust.
Among its claims is that the President authorised the alleged “kidnapping” of Duterte, by allowing his arrest for ICC proceedings in March 2025 without due process.
Duterte, president from 2016 to 2022, was charged with crimes against humanity over killings that took place during his controversial war on drugs.
De Jesus also called Marcos a “drug addict” in the complaint – an accusation previously thrown against the President by his predecessor and his daughter, Vice-President Sara Duterte.
The complaint also alleges that Marcos breached public trust by failing to veto budget provisions from 2023 to 2026 that it claims were unconstitutional.
It further accuses him of benefitting from so-called “ghost” flood-control projects, and of creating a government task force to investigate the infrastructure mess in an attempt to shield political allies.
Legal experts, however, say the complaint is unlikely to survive even the House of Representatives’ initial screening.
Flimsy evidence?
Lawyer Michael Yusingco, a senior research fellow at the Manila-based Ateneo Policy Centre, noted that the impeachment complaint does not contain concrete evidence.
“In this impeachment complaint, the allegations are purely speculative, purely opinion. I don’t see them being supported by strong evidence because the speculations are based on news reports,” Yusingco told The Straits Times.
He contrasted the complaint with the impeachment of former president Joseph Estrada, whose case in 2000 was anchored on specific allegations of corruption, including receiving payoffs from illegal gambling and benefitting from insider trading, and was supported by testimony and documentary evidence.
The House impeached Estrada, but his trial in the Senate was stalled after senators voted to block the opening of a key piece of evidence, triggering mass street protests that forced him from office in January 2001.
“You have to show in the complaint that if we do not remove the President, our entire government system will be undermined,” Yusingco said. “That kind of narrative is not present here.”
Flood control mess
Marcos has denied wrongdoing and has sought to project a tougher stance on corruption, having ordered in June a probe into the flood control infrastructure scandal, which has so far implicated lawmakers, contractors and senior officials.
Among those now embroiled in the scandal is Nisay, who endorsed the impeachment bid. The lawmaker is a construction contractor who was among eight lawmakers referred to the Office of the Ombudsman for possible graft charges in 2025.
Nisay also backed the now-junked impeachment complaint against Vice-President Duterte.
The House impeached Duterte in February 2025, but it did not go to trial in the Senate after she questioned the proceedings before the Supreme Court, which then ruled that her impeachment complaint was procedurally defective.
Her critics have said they plan to refile a complaint in February.
Marcos-Duterte fallout
Political analysts say the impeachment bid against Marcos is best understood not as a serious attempt to unseat him, but more a reflection of intensifying factional warfare following the collapse of the Marcos-Duterte alliance.
Dr Aries Arugay, a political scientist at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said the move was “hardly surprising”, noting that impeachment talk had been circulating within the Duterte camp for months.
“It almost reads like a personal vendetta wrapped in a supposed attempt at accountability, which is very dubious,” he said, adding that impeachment, an accountability mechanism by design, is increasingly being repurposed as a political weapon amid the Marcos-Duterte rivalry.
Dr Arugay said the complaint faces steep odds, even before questions of evidence are considered. Marcos still commands significant numbers in the House, so the impeachment bid is unlikely to pass.
Even if the bid passes the House, a two-thirds vote is needed in the Senate before the complaint is passed – a threshold the Duterte bloc does not have.
A threat to Marcos’ political capital
Still, analysts caution that the filing could carry political costs, even if it fails procedurally.
Ateneo Policy Centre’s Yusingco said the complaint could amplify public frustration over perceptions that the administration has not moved decisively enough against those implicated in infrastructure-related corruption.
“The real problem is the perception... that he is protecting certain elements of the flood control corruption scheme,” he said.
Dr Arugay echoed this view, saying the effort may be aimed less at removal than at weakening Marcos politically. “The logic of the Duterte camp is that ‘if we make Marcos Jr weak, it makes Sara Duterte strong’.”
Marcos, who was elected in 2022, is serving a single six-year term and is barred by the Constitution from seeking re-election in 2028. Duterte is seen as a contender for the 2028 presidential race.
Malacanang, the presidential palace, released a statement on Jan 19 saying it recognises that the filing of impeachment complaints is constitutionally protected, but expressed confidence that lawmakers would act with “honesty, integrity, and fidelity to the rule of law”.
The timing of the complaint comes at an awkward period for Marcos, as the Philippines is chairing Asean in 2026.
While analysts do not expect the impeachment bid to seriously dent his international standing, they say it may invite uncomfortable questions and reinforce narratives of domestic political turbulence at a time when Manila is seeking to project stability and leadership.
“The impeachment case undermines whatever is left of his political capital,” said Dr Arugay. - The Straits Times/ANN
