Mainland Chinese citizens feel more favourable towards Taiwan than they did six months ago, support a hardline stance towards the US if another trade war erupts and view Russia and North Korea most positively and Japan least positively among their neighbours, according to a new survey by the Carter Centre and Emory University.
One finding that comes through loud and clear, its authors said, is that mainlanders believe they have arrived and their country now belongs in a grouping limited to China and the US.
“The Chinese public understand themselves to be living in a G2 world,” said Nick Zeller, survey co-author and senior programme associate at the Cartre Centre, speaking Tuesday at the Asia Society. “And they expect the United States to meet them there.”
The China Pulse polling comes at a key juncture as Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump prepare to meet later this month in Beijing.
And it provides a rare window into the views of ordinary citizens in a nation where polling is often restricted or banned outright. The survey is careful, for instance, not to elicit responses on domestic policy.
While the public’s feelings towards Taiwan have warmed modestly since the last survey six months ago, those feelings remain complicated.
Even as positive feelings have grown, and the overall preference is for peaceful efforts to improve relations drawing on shared culture, however, fewer mainland Chinese are against using force to bring about unification than six months ago.
The survey finds no clear mandate for a military attack on Taiwan, its authors said. “Neither is there clear evidence for a majority pacifist position.”
But if force is deemed necessary to prevent Taiwan from declaring independence, most said they prefer limited military operations against Taiwan’s offshore islands or economic sanctions rather than a full-scale war.
Regarding China’s perilous trading relationship with the US, a key interest for the mainland public coming out of the survey is that Beijing be treated as an equal, in part given the view that a trade conflict will be damaging to both sides.
“The Chinese public are ready to deal but not back down,” the report said.
The survey of 2,506 mainland Chinese adults was conducted between late October and early January, drawing on a representative sample by age, gender and geography. Polling is conducted twice a year to better track shifting views.
The results were collected before Trump attacked Iran, but authors said some of the answers likely reflect the increasingly unstable geopolitical world.
“This is a moment in which more adventurism is happening,” said Renard Sexton, associate professor at Emory University and a survey co-author.
While it is difficult to track public opinion in an authoritarian state, these findings suggest that Chinese views are vibrant and varied, said Yawei Liu, senior adviser with the Carter Centre.
“It’s a Chinese public that we actually don’t know much about, particularly on the issue of Taiwan, on the issue of how the US poses a threat to China’s national security, where they think the US and China can cooperate,” he added.
Majority of mainland Chinese see US as national security threat
Some 73 per cent of mainland Chinese view the US as a national security threat, with trade and economics cited as their primary concern.
Most expressed confidence that Washington and Beijing will eventually reach a relatively balanced tariff agreement.
But if a new trade war broke out, 62 per cent said they backed China standing tall and retaliating, even if it hurt their economy.
Some two-thirds said they would want China to strike back using leverage over rare-earth minerals, over half espoused higher Chinese tariffs on US goods or restrictions on US imports, and around a third called for more home-grown investment in China’s semiconductor industry.
Russia viewed in most positive light by mainland Chinese
Other than top-rated Taiwan, respondents said their best neighbours are Russia – which signed a “no-limits partnership” with Beijing in 2022, weeks before the start of Ukraine war – and North Korea. Also in the positive camp for most mainland Chinese was Singapore.
A plurality believes China will gain from a Russian victory over Ukraine, and most support closer economic ties with Moscow, although they are against deploying People’s Liberation Army troops to support Russia.
“We found the limit of the no-limits partnership, and it’s sending PLA troops,” said Zeller.
A separate 2024 Tsinghua University poll found only six per cent of Chinese people believed Russia was primarily to blame for the Russia-Ukraine war, while 42 per cent blamed “other third parties”, likely including the US.
Respondents viewed their other neighbours, most closely tied to Washington, unfavourably. On a favourability scale of 1 to 100, most had a ranking of around one-third positive.
Ties with Thailand were the most favourable at 38 per cent and Japan the least at 21 per cent, with South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines, India and Cambodia filling out the middle in descending order.
The mainland public supports military build-ups in response to Japan and South Korea, but it is “not willing to militarily intervene in active conflicts”, the survey found.
On the other side, Vietnam, India and Cambodia recorded a warmer view of their giant neighbour in 2024 over 2020, while India, still negative, was less unfavourable, according to Asia Society’s Global Public Opinion on China.
South Korea, Japan and, to a lesser extent, the Philippines, meanwhile, have remained consistently negative.
Chinese public support for economic assistance to North Korea
A little over half of mainlanders back Beijing’s economic assistance to North Korea despite the UN sanctions. But in contrast with Russia, a plurality believe military support to Pyongyang is justified.
North Korea and Russia are among modern China’s most long-standing geopolitical partners.
The survey found that among most respondents who see the US as a national security threat, Taiwan is the biggest flashpoint.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed by law to supplying it with weapons. -- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
