KUALA LUMPUR/MANILA (Xinhua) -- Asean could emerge as the world's fourth-largest economy in the coming decades, experts say, but the regional bloc must accelerate integration, strengthen institutions, and adapt to global shifts to realize this potential.
Experts also urge Asean to act collectively to solidify its global presence.
EMERGING INDUSTRY FUELING COMMON FUTURE
"Asean, presently with an economic size of 3.8 trillion U.S. dollars, could become the fourth-largest economy on an aggregated basis but of a smaller world," said Mohd Munir Abdul Majid, chairman of CARI Asean Research and Advocacy, in a recent email interview with Xinhua.
Mohd Munir, who is also president of the Asean Business Club and a senior fellow at LSE IDEAS, said technology -- particularly artificial intelligence (AI) in the services sector -- will drive future growth. He emphasized that Asean's access to technology should be guided by cost and technical quality.
"E-commerce could be a key catalyst for intra-regional trade," Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid, chief economist at Bank Muamalat Malaysia Berhad, said that a robust digital infrastructure, including telecommunications and smart devices, is essential.
Mohd Afzanizam also highlighted the importance of logistics to ensure speedy delivery, which necessitates efficient warehousing systems. He further emphasized that payment systems, such as QR code networks, are crucial to support micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in expanding into international markets.
Oh Ei Sun, principal adviser at the Pacific Research Center of Malaysia, stated that Asean should prioritize high-tech sectors that offer greater value-added potential. However, he told Xinhua that traditional commodities like palm oil and petroleum would remain vital as the region catches up in advanced industries.
ASEAN INTEGRATION PROGRESSING STEADILY
Aseans economic integration has been advancing gradually, with a strong emphasis on consensus and free trade, experts say.
"Asean's economic integration has progressed steadily rather than hastily, grounded in a consistent commitment to free trade," said Mohd Munir.
According to him, Asean's journey began with the Asean Free Trade Area in 1992, followed by the launch of the Asean Economic Community (AEC). The process is now guided by the Kuala Lumpur Declaration on Asean 2045, adopted at the 46th Asean Summit in May.
"There is a lot happening. Not fast enough or optimally, but in a clear direction," he noted, adding that Asean has progressed based on consensus to deepen integration and free trade.
Li Yuqing, assistant professor of Institute for International and Area Studies of Tsinghua University, said ASEAN's updates to the Asean Trade in Goods Agreement enhance regional trade and deepen integration, supporting its goal of becoming the world's fourth-largest economy.
"Above all, Asean is a peaceful region, which makes it a conducive location for foreign direct investment and business ventures that can come from across the globe," Mohd Afzanizam said, highlighting initiatives such as the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone as evidence of strengthening regional ties.
INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS, STRATEGIC CLARITY NEEDED
Despite progress, experts pointed out that Asean faces institutional limitations. Mohd Munir said the bloc's decision-making structure remains slow, and the secretariat is under-resourced, despite the ASEAN 2045 vision calling for strengthening.
"The point Asean must realise is that there is an urgent need to develop its strategic options in a changing world. It has taken a slow and steady course on increasing intra-regional trade, labor mobility and institutional implementation, emphasizing always on consensus," he said. "But there are now big issues for decision-making that cannot follow that route."
Mohd Afzanizam warned that non-tariff barriers remain a key obstacle, as member states often act to protect their domestic industries. "Continuous dialogue, both government-to-government and government-to-business, is vital to identify and bridge these gaps," he said.
Oh echoed those concerns, urging Asean to address internal development disparities.
"Asean should focus on eradicating the abject poverty amongst itself for the least developed member states, and escaping the middle-income trap for the developing member states," he added.
CHINA TIES OFFER CHANCE FOR COOPERATION
Experts believe Asean-China relations are entering a new phase, driven by growing investment and strategic collaboration.
Mohd Munir noted that Asean-China relations have been close in trade and, increasingly, in investment. In the context of global trade tensions, it would be good to deepen that relationship for mutual benefit.
"For China, Asean's economic integration provides a relatively stable regional trade environment, helping China manage external trade risks and enhance economic resilience and stability," Li mentioned.
She also noted that integration makes Asean's investment environment more stable and transparent, enabling businesses to better access the Asean market and achieve more efficient resource allocation.
ASEAN countries may deepen cooperation with China in infrastructure development, which would accelerate progress in the digital economy and green transition, Oh suggested.
GREATER INFLUENCE AMID UNCERTAINTY
Regardless of whether Asean becomes the fourth-largest economy, its current size already warrants greater global influence, as the bloc is urged to exercise its weight in global affairs.
"Asean needs to be less reticent about asserting its influence and initiating new ideas in a world marked by global disorder," he added.
"Deeper Asean economic integration would strengthen the bloc's bargaining power," Li said, adding that it would enhance its role as a regional coordinator and allow it to play a more significant role.
Mohd Afzanizam said that the shift toward a multipolar world provides more platforms for diplomatic solutions rather than unilateral decisions, especially from a single superpower, which can be disruptive.
"This should resonate well with Asean as the region has always been peaceful. Certainly, Asean would want to advocate this at the global arena which is a universally accepted value," he added. - Xinhua
