MANILA: Philippine voters have delivered a blow to President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and a boost to the controversial Duterte clan, whose members and allies outperformed expectations in Monday’s (May 12) midterm elections.
Ex-President Rodrigo Duterte looks set to become mayor of Davao City despite his detention by the International Criminal Court for alleged crimes against humanity, according to election results released by GMA News. His two sons lead other races.
Impeached Vice President Sara Duterte, who faces a July Senate trial for alleged misdeeds including an apparent threat to assassinate Marcos, saw allies win at least four of the 12 Senate seats up for grabs. That was more than surveys had indicated and gives her a core bloc of supporters in the 24-member chamber.
"It will be more difficult to get a conviction,” Maria Ela Atienza, a professor of political science at the University of Philippines said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. "There will be a lot of negotiations now.”
Philippine stocks rose 0.8% in early trade and the peso dropped as much as 0.7% after markets were closed Monday, though the main driver was news of the 90-day truce in the US-China trade war.
The Senate trial still holds perils for the vice president, but two-thirds of the chamber would need to vote for her conviction, which would remove Sara Duterte from office and block her from a 2028 run for the presidency. But Marcos-endorsed candidates look set to win just six Senate seats, fewer than anticipated, amid widespread concerns about the cost of living and the dispute with his deputy.
"The results reflect the declining popularity of Marcos Jr., the resurgence of the Duterte brand, and the readmission of the traditional liberal opposition back into high politics,” said Anthony Lawrence Borja, an associate professor at De La Salle University in Manila. "It is a welcome surprise for liberals and an unwelcome one for the administration.”
Those liberals are Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan, who are on course to return to the Senate after getting backed by Leni Robredo, a former vice president who ran against Marcos in 2022.
The results, which may not be officially confirmed for days, raise questions about the ability of Marcos to press his agenda in his last three years in office, especially as the president tries to attract investors and expand the economy by at least 6% this year after first-quarter growth missed estimates.
The president’s sister, Imee Marcos, is on course for re-election as a senator after casting off her brother to join Sara Duterte on the campaign trail.
Congresswoman Camille Villar, daughter of the Philippines’ richest man, Manuel Villar, is set to win election to the Senate. But while she is part of the Marcos slate, she also sought the backing of Sara Duterte late in the campaign to boost her chances. But she didn’t publicly quit the president’s team.
While neither the president nor the vice president were on the ballot, they campaigned extensively across the archipelago of 114 million people.
After running on a joint ticket in 2022, the Marcos-Duterte relationship fractured, and last November Sara Duterte said that if she was murdered, she had arranged for revenge killings of Marcos and his wife. Her father, Rodrigo Duterte, who had bragged of using a "death squad” to execute criminals, then called on the military to intervene to fix the nation’s "fractured” governance.
The vice president’s remarks, along with her alleged misuse of public funds, led to her impeachment by the House of Representatives. She denies the allegations.
Relations worsened in March, when Marcos allowed the arrest of Rodrigo Duterte and his transfer to the ICC in the Netherlands, accused of a role in the deaths of thousands during his war on drugs. The ex-president, now aged 80, is fighting the charges, and some voters liked his hard line.
"Duterte tackled the drug problem,” Jennifer Yandoc, a 44-year-old mother of four, said as she voted in San Fernando City north of Manila on Monday.
Rodrigo Duterte’s youngest son and incumbent Davao mayor, Sebastian, is leading in the race to be his father’s deputy mayor. His eldest son, Paolo, is on course to keep his congressional seat.
More than 18,000 other national and local positions were contested. Voting was mostly peaceful, though at least one person died and several collapsed in stifling temperatures. - Bloomberg
