KUALA LUMPUR/BANGKOK (Xinhua): A Malaysian research house has foreseen resilient Asean economic growth next year despite looming global economic tensions.
Maybank Investment Bank said in a report on Tuesday that going into 2025, the outlook for the Association of South-East Asian Nations (Asean) is clouded by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's radical policy shifts and a looming global trade war.
However, it forecasts Asean-6 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) gross domestic product (GDP) growth remaining resilient at 4.7 percent in both 2025 and 2026.
According to Maybank, the growth resilience is underpinned by the trifecta of the global electronics upcycle, foreign direct investment (FDI) structural uptrend amid drivers like manufacturing supply chain shifts and data center boom, and ongoing post-pandemic tourism normalization.
"FDI will likely strengthen and spread more evenly across Asean, including to Thailand and the Philippines. Singapore is on the cusp of a building boom. Malaysia is seeing an investment upcycle wave," it said.
It noted other non-trade growth engines -- tourism, data centers and Asean economic integration -- remain intact and will support growth.
According to Maybank, the tourism recovery will continue, with new markets (India, South Korea) and Chinese visitors gradually returning to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2025.
It noted that both total and Chinese visitor arrivals to Malaysia and Singapore are already near pre-pandemic levels.
It highlighted that data centers, which also spur investments in renewable energy, are emerging as a growth driver in Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand.
It also noted Asean will strengthen its economic integration, including via the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone and the upgrade of the Asean energy grid.
According to Maybank, 2024 is expected to see a stronger Asean GDP growth (4.8 percent versus 4 percent in 2023), as manufacturing and exports recovered, particularly those of electronics, from their slump in the previous year. - XInhua
