NEW DELHI: Russian President Vladimir Putin drew Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi into a warm bear hug, referred to him as his “dearest friend”, took him for a drive around his official residence of Novo-Ogaryovo on the outskirts of Moscow, and had multiple meetings with him over Modi’s two-day visit to Russia.
The Indian Prime Minister, in turn, called the Russian strongman “my dear friend” and hailed Russia as a “partner in happiness and sorrow”.
Yet for Modi, who chose Russia for his first trip after being sworn in for his third term of office, a complex strategic calculus lies behind the optics of this friendship, as he seeks to balance India’s ties with Russia on the one hand and the United States on the other.
India has deepening ties with the US, which sees the South Asian country as a crucial strategic partner in its security blueprint for the Indo-Pacific amid the growing assertiveness of China, a common concern for both Washington and New Delhi.
India has so far refused to explicitly criticise Putin for the Ukraine war, although Modi told the leader when they met in 2022 that “today’s time is not a time for war”.
Underscoring the delicate diplomatic tightrope that New Delhi is treading, Modi told Putin he was pained by the deaths of children in war, a day after a children’s hospital was hit during a deadly round of Russian airstrikes on cities across Ukraine on July 8. At least 37 people were killed in the attacks.
“Whether it is war, conflict or a terrorist attack, anyone who believes in humanity, is pained when there is loss of lives. But even in that, when innocent children are killed, the heart bleeds and that pain is very terrifying.”
Solutions to the crisis could not be found amid “guns, bullets and bombs”, Modi added.
Still, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky has slammed the Indian PM’s visit as an impediment to peace.
Associate Professor Rajan Kumar from Jawaharlal Nehru University told The Straits Times: “In a way, Modi is trying to convey a conciliatory message to the West that India will have ties with Russia due to national interest. But at the same time, India is not taking the side of Russia, and is willing to call a spade a spade.”
A US state department spokesperson said that the US had been quite clear about US’ “concerns about India’s relationship with Russia” and had expressed it directly with the Indian government.
Ties between India and Russia date back to the Cold War era, when they were close allies. Their defence ties have endured even as New Delhi drew closer to the US over the past two decades.
While India has been diversifying its weapons’ purchases to include source countries like the US and Israel, Russian military equipment still accounts for 80 per cent of Indian weaponry.
However, the Ukraine war has delayed Russia’s shipments of military spare parts for maintenance and new weapons to India.
Only three out of the five S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missile systems, for instance, have been delivered, while two are behind schedule.
The delivery of spare parts and other military equipment was a key part of the two leaders’ discussions, along with ways to engage further economically.
Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra said on July 9 some spare parts for India’s Russian-origin weapons will be jointly manufactured in India.
During Modi’s visit, the economic relationship has also come into sharper focus with the two sides agreeing to boost trade to US$100 billion by 2030, according to a joint statement. They also pledged to reduce non-tariff trade barriers, reduce the trade imbalance that now benefits Russia, improve connectivity, and increase trade in agriculture goods.
The value of bilateral trade between India and Russia has soared from US$15 billion in 2021-2022 to US$65 billion in 2023-2024.
India’s imports of Russian discounted oil, fertilisers and gas helped prop up Moscow’s trade figures after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
“Russia is equally invested in the relationship. Russia sees India as a balancer in its relationship with China. It also sees India as a country that has a robust relationship with the West, which has completely cut off ties with Russia. India has a value in that sphere and could act as a bridge,” noted Nandan Unnikrishnan, a distinguished fellow at Observer Research Foundation New Delhi.
“If push comes to shove, India would be one of those countries that could contribute towards peace in Ukraine. India is unlikely to be a mediator, but in some other ways (it could) facilitate (mediation between) Russia and the West,” he added.
Yet, India is also wary of warming Moscow and Beijing ties, bonding in their mutual mistrust of the West – a development that has concerned New Delhi. India and China are embroiled in a long-standing border row
India’s desire to deepen ties with Russia also stemmed from not wanting Russia to be overly dependent on China, noted former Indian diplomat and author Ajay Bisaria.
“Given that the belligerent rise of China is the single largest strategic challenge India faces for the next decade, it sees this as additional reason to engage China’s biggest global competitor, the US, as also its closest ally, Russia,” said Bisaria.
“India would hope that Russia’s influence would moderate Chinese behaviour, particularly in a future India-China conflict situation, given that Russia sells weapon systems to both countries.” - The Straits Times/ANN
