Indonesian vice-presidential candidate Gibran Rakabuming Raka arriving at the election watchdog's office for questioning on Jan 3 over an alleged campaign violation. - PHOTO: EPA-EFE via The Straits Times/ANN
JAKARTA: President Joko Widodo’s son Gibran Rakabuming Raka, who is running for vice-president in Indonesia’s 2024 polls, has found himself in hot water yet again – this time over an alleged campaign violation involving distributing milk to children.
But despite a series of slip-ups surrounding the 36-year-old candidate, including inaccurate comments on pregnant women and reported misbehaviour during official debates, analysts say his electoral prospects are not significantly dented.
On Jan 3, Mr Gibran, who is mayor of Solo, was questioned by the Central Jakarta branch of the Elections Supervisory Agency for handing out milk at a public car-free day event in the capital city on Dec 3, 2023.
A 2016 Jakarta gubernatorial order bars “events for the interests of political parties” during car-free days, when vehicles are banned from major thoroughfares as part of an environmental push. The archipelago’s laws also ban election participants from involving children in their campaigns.
Local media reported that at a one-hour questioning, Mr Gibran stuck to his stance that giving out milk to children did not constitute campaigning. He also repeated how he was not in possession of any campaign materials at the event, and did not ask the people he encountered to vote for him.
The questioning follows his apology on Dec 4, 2023, for mistakenly saying pregnant women required sulphuric acid, rather than folic acid, to prevent stunted growth in their children.
He made the comments during a discussion with his running mate, presidential candidate and Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, when he was clarifying details on his milk distribution programme.
He made another public apology less than two weeks later for his actions during the first presidential debate on Dec 12.
During an exchange with fellow presidential candidate Anies Baswedan, Mr Gibran stood up from his chair and gestured to his supporters to cheer even louder, even though candidates are not allowed to rally their supporters during the debates. Mr Gibran got away with a reprimand from the General Elections Commission.
Despite these incidents, Mr Gibran and Mr Prabowo are still in the lead in the race to the Istana. A poll from local pollster Indikator Politik Indonesia from Dec 23 to 24 showed that the Prabowo-Gibran pair have a strong lead against their opponents, with their support found to be at 46.7 per cent.
Support for former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo and Chief Security Minister Mahfud MD was at 24.5 per cent, while Mr Anies and former minister Muhaimin Iskandar received 21 per cent.
Ms Julia Lau, co-coordinator for the Indonesia Studies Programme at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said Mr Gibran’s enduring popularity has to do with both his family and the attitude Indonesians have towards elections.
“Gibran’s strong popularity despite his so-called gaffes has to do with his father’s popularity transferring on to him, as the eldest son, or even the idea that many Indonesians find national elections more of an occasion for some levity or performative actions by politicians, rather than a serious political contest,” she said.
The Prabowo-Gibran pair benefit from devoted voter bases, notably including loyal supporters of Mr Widodo who have chosen to support Mr Gibran, said Mr Dedi Dinarto, lead Indonesia analyst at strategic advisory firm Global Counsel. “This loyalty remains strong despite any negative issues that may arise about the candidates,” he said.
Ms Lau said Mr Gibran’s actions are landing on a tolerant audience who, to some extent, see nothing wrong with what he does.
She added that any criticism lobbed at him usually comes from a certain educated part of Indonesian society, as well as those who come from a middle to higher socio-economic level.
“This might not swing the needle much. Precisely because Gibran still engages in populist – albeit rule-breaking – actions like giving out free milk and free lunches, voters who are not familiar with the campaign rules will actually see nothing wrong with what he does,” Ms Lau said.
Perhaps this has been reflected most clearly in the controversial rule change that paved the way for Mr Gibran’s candidacy.
Indonesia’s Constitutional Court in October 2023 ruled that the minimum age of 40 to run for the nation’s top posts would not apply to anyone who has held or currently holds a position won through a general election, including regional ballots.
Despite some criticism, mainly from civil society and the more educated, Indonesians in general accepted the ruling, which on Nov 13, 2023, saw Mr Gibran officially accepted as a candidate for the election.
But the impact of the series of alleged violations is becoming more apparent when considering Mr Prabowo and Mr Gibran’s ability to broaden their voter base, Mr Dedi said.
He added that their electability has remained stagnant, hovering around 46 per cent from November to December 2023, with latest test survey results indicating only a marginal rise of about 1 percentage point.
“It appears that various controversies have limited their capacity to attract more voters, potentially dissuading undecided or swing voters from backing them,” he said.
Ms Lau said Mr Gibran, as the President’s son and a vice-presidential candidate, exemplifies the broader issue of powerful political dynasties observed worldwide.
“Gibran is not an anomaly but a symptom of the corruptive tendencies of politics: All power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely. What the people of Indonesia have to do is remind Gibran that he is running for vice-president, and he is not a prince who inherits a title.” - The Straits Times/ANN
