ON the surface, Selangor seems to be a safe bet for Pakatan Harapan, and while it’s unlikely to retain its huge majority, it’s supposed to remain shielded.
But privately, Pakatan leaders are feeling unsettled despite their public announcements that Pakatan is confident of retaining the most important state.
Perikatan Nasional thinks it has a chance but isn’t sure of the Malay turnout. It needs at least 70% Malay attendance to potentially win.
Perikatan leaders are brazenly telling their listeners they have a 60:40 chance of a surprise victory as they intend to ride on the Green Wave, which they said is becoming a Malay Tsunami.
While Perikatan is openly using the race and religion narrative in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu, Pakatan has chosen to stay clear of such tactics.
Bersatu leader Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali admits voters are different in Selangor.
It’s also interesting to note that PAS secretary-general Datuk Seri Takiyuddin Hassan has placed a gag order on its members ahead of polling day.
It’s certainly an unusual directive but it’s safe to assume that the Islamist party doesn’t want its leaders and candidates to make alarming remarks which could only spook the people.
The party has a history of making statements re-enforcing its hardline image, which naturally always frightens non- Muslims.
With Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah remaining untouchable, PAS sees its winning streak continuing in other states, too, courtesy of its Green Wave.
While Perikatan has a lesser chance of winning Penang, Selangor and Negri Sembilan, PAS believes it has realistic chances of grabbing more seats in these states.
In Selangor, there are 56 seats up for grabs with a simple majority of 29 and 37 seats to secure a two-thirds majority.
Before dissolution, the breakdown was PKR (19), DAP (15), Umno (5), Amanah (6), PAS (1), Bersatu (4), Pejuang (1), Warisan (1), and Parti Bangsa Malaysia (2) Independent (1) and vacant (1).
The Batang Kali seat fell vacant after its assemblyman, Harumaini Omar, who is Selangor Pejuang chief, was sacked from the state legislative assembly for absenteeism.
There are 39 Malay majority seats, and this is where the battle will be most intense, while the others are mixed with a 50% or slightly more non-Malay electorate.
The rough racial breakdown in Selangor are Malays 54%, Chinese 32%, Indians 13% and others 1%.
Let’s not forget that Indians make up around 10% of voters in about 66% of the seats in Selangor.
In Kota Raja, for example, Indians make up 40% of the electorate, according to political scientist Bridget Welsh.
The concern now is that Chinese voters, who are instrumental in stopping the Green Wave, could be complacent. Early indications reveal that Chinese electorate turnout remains less than 60%, which won’t be enough.
It’s also worrying that Chinese voters feel that the DAP seats are sure wins, so their votes won’t make any difference.
But Pakatan is more interested in the non-Malay votes in the Malay-majority constituencies to determine the outcome.
Interestingly, urban Malays could choose to vote for Perikatan this time, albeit not because they like PAS.
Having spoken to a wide range of my Malay friends, their grouses with Pakatan include the coalition’s purported inconsistent stand on corruption, unclear economic direction, Umno’s leadership, and even local councils’ poor job.
My neighbours, for example, are outraged that a PKNS-owned public golf course is planning to build and relocate a double-storey clubhouse next to their homes. The future status of the golf course, which serves as a green lung, is unclear as it gives rise to speculation of a housing development.
Those in the mixed-ethnic neighbourhood are upset about this and have sought legal action.
It has nothing to do with politics, but the Kota Damansara seat, which is under Pakatan, may just lose some votes.
Ironically, my disgruntled neighbours have praised Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim for his investment efforts, especially in getting Tesla to set up its regional headquarters in Selangor.
As the campaign enters the final week, the media has reported the lack of interest in ceramah, embarrassingly, with images of many empty seats. This could be attributed to ceramah now being live streamed on the Internet.
I don’t think that it’s because voters prefer to meet their candidates at marketplaces.
It’s impossible to cover an urban constituency with a huge electorate on foot and it would be foolish of candidates not to use social media to their advantage.
For candidates making their debut, even if only a few thousand viewers follow their online interviews with influencers, it still has a wider reach than the conventional market walkabout, especially in the urban seats.
PAS has done remarkably well in using TikTok and other platforms while Pakatan, which used to be ahead of the game against Barisan Nasional previously, seems to have lacked that savviness in the social media war.
Former Umno leader Tan Sri Shahidan Kassim, who is now with Perikatan, has been able to garner TikTok figures of a few million for each of his postings, thanks to his social media team.
Time is running out. Pakatan chairman Anwar needs to urgently give that extra push, especially with the non-Malays, before polling day on Aug 12.
Anwar has spent the last few days in Kedah, where he has been able to command huge crowds for his ceramah. He highlighted the importance of foreign investments as he listed them down one by one, but he needs to return to Selangor for the last push in the state that matters most.
Pakatan must stop taking for granted that non-Malay votes are safe deposits. They’re not. Anwar has to convince the Malays that Selangor is not Kelantan, Kedah or Tereng-ganu.
A large section of Malays may be angry with the Umno leadership, but there are bigger causes to consider.
Nothing is certain anymore. Pakatan must do more if it wants to retain the Jewel in the Crown.
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Wong Chun Wai
Wong Chun Wai began his career as a journalist in Penang, and has served The Star for over 35 years in various capacities and roles. He is now group editorial and corporate affairs adviser to the group, after having served as group managing director/chief executive officer. On The Beat made its debut on Feb 23 1997 and Chun Wai has penned the column weekly without a break, except for the occasional press holiday when the paper was not published. In May 2011, a compilation of selected articles of On The Beat was published as a book and launched in conjunction with his 50th birthday. Chun Wai also comments on current issues in The Star.
