Sabah politics in a state of flux

POLITICAL dating is abuzz in Sabah. Politicians from either side of the divide are overtly or covertly meeting each other for possible tie-ups ahead of the state polls due anytime before September 2025.

Such meetings between friends and foes are sometimes whispered in political circles, while in some cases, public appearances of former rivals are strategically done to rattle their mutual opponents.

As is often said in politics, there are no permanent friends or enemies, just common interests.

These dates between politicians sometimes raise political temperatures on the ground as various groups try to support or shoot down possible alliances.

The appearance of Sabah Umno chairman Datuk Seri Bung Moktar Radin at the annual congress of Parti Warisan helmed by Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal last month sparked speculation that the one-time rivals were teaming up.

But both men, who were buddies from their days in Umno, were quick to say they were keeping their options open for any electoral pact to take on their mutual rival Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) led by Chief Minister Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor.

After all, they are all under the unity government and there was nothing wrong with them attending events of component parties within the Federal Government.

Shafie has made it clear that Warisan is in the opposition at the state level. Bung Moktar, who pulled Sabah Barisan Nasional out of GRS on Jan 5 last year, remains critical of Hajiji’s government but has fallen short of declaring Sabah Barisan as opposition at the state level.

To many, it was clear that it was a subtle message to the seven-party GRS coalition that they might have to go up against a formidable opponent in the coming election.

In the 2020 state polls, Warisan and its partners, Pakatan Harapan, were toppled when they failed to win a simple majority.

Hajiji’s GRS, in partnership with Umno and Independents, formed the government with a simple 41-seat majority against the 32 seats won by the Warisan Plus pact.

Much of the political alignments of 2020 have changed since the 15th General Election in November 2022, and the political dynamics in Sabah remain blurred following large-scale crossovers since December 2022 and the formation of new alliances.

Amid the new scenario, Sabah politicians are gearing up to forge fresh alliances to strengthen their position so as to wrest as many seats as they can in the 73-member state assembly once an election is called by Hajiji.

The alliances and electoral pacts are seen as necessary as observers believe that no single party can win on its own if it needs to take on the ruling state coalition GRS, which itself needs to remain intact as the component parties haggle for seat shares.

GRS comprises Hajiji’s Parti Gagasan Rakyat Sabah (Gagasan Rakyat), Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS led by Datuk Seri Dr Maximus Ongkili), Sabah STAR led by Datuk Dr Jeffrey Kitingan, Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP led by Datuk Seri Yong Teck Lee) and Usno led by Tan Sri Pandikar Amin.

Two other parties admitted into GRS are the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) led by Datuk Chin Su Phin, and Pari Harapan Rakyat Sabah, headed by Tan Sri Liew Yun Fah.

With Gagasan Rakyat the dominant force within GRS, the coalition’s native-based PBS and Sabah STAR have also initiated talks between themselves to set ground rules for an agreement on the native Kadazandusun, Murut and Rungus seats to contest.

Observers believe that it could be a tough deal on the negotiating table, given the decades of personal animosity between Ongkili and Kitingan since they went their separate ways in the 1990s.

These internal coalition agreements on seat-sharing could cut both ways for GRS by strengthening the coalition or putting more pressure on the grouping in seat allocation.

“We are seeing that all Sabah parties are starting to talk to each other about partnerships. This indicates the importance of establishing a political coalition or alliance in order to form a government.

“This suggests a potential threat to the existing political coalition, with no assurance that it could withstand possible party realignments,” said political analyst Tony Paridi Bagang, a lecturer with Sabah UiTM.

At this point, Bagang said it is too early to predict if Sabah will see a hung assembly after the coming polls.

“We need to identify who and which party and political coalition are contesting,” he said, explaining that such partnerships will become clearer with the actual dissolution of the assembly.

Sitting in the GRS state government are the four-party Sabah Pakatan Harapan and renegades from Sabah Umno, as well as defectors from Warisan.

Sabah Pakatan slipped into the state government when it backed Hajiji after a failed coup mounted by Sabah Barisan and Warisan on Jan 5 last year.

Sabah Pakatan (PKR, DAP, Upko and Amanah) has kept a political silence on its next alliance.

Talk is that interior-based Parti KDM led by Datuk Peter Anthony may join Sabah Pakatan but is at the same time being courted by Barisan and Warisan.

Observers see a tricky situation arising as Sabah politics differs from the national dynamics.

Local leaders in national-based parties have their own formulas, but whether their national leaders will grant them that autonomy is also yet to be seen.

Currently all parties are keeping their options open as they look for the best combination to put them in pole position before and after the election.

Amid the smiles and frowns among rivals and friends, Sabah might see strange bedfellows uniting to contest the state election that could be held before September or, as some are indicating, by early February next year.