Will Sabah hold early polls?

A QUESTION in the minds of political circles in Sabah is whether Chief Minister Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor will call for a snap state election either in April or October next year before his five-year term ends on Sept 2025.

Talk of an early state election has been going on among circles close to Hajiji’s Parti Gagasan Rakyat Sabah (Gagasan Rakyat) as well as their partners in Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS).

The possibility grew even stronger when Hajiji himself urged Gagasan Rakyat members to prepare for an early election when he opened the party’s first congress on Nov 13.

Political observers see Hajiji in a position of strength especially after his fledgling Gagasan Rakyat, which now has some 240,000 members, is expected to grow to 300,000 by year end.

Having survived a political coup mounted by Sabah Umno in January, observers see Hajiji and his seven party GRS coalition in a stronger position to take on his opponents Parti Warisan Sabah led by Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal and also Sabah Umno led by Datuk Seri Bung Moktar Radin.

Political scientist Dr Romzi Ationg said pressure was mounting on Hajiji to seek a fresh mandate especially after he and other leaders left Bersatu in Dec last year following the 15th General Election.

Hajiji was appointed Chief Minister after the September 2020 state polls where he contested under a Perikatan Nasional ticket.

But after GE15, Hajiji led an exodus of Sabah Bersatu lawmakers to join Gagasan Rakyat and announced that they would support the Federal-level unity government.

“The main reason (for an early election) has always been pressure from Umno and Warisan, it is an open secret,” said Romzi, a senior lecturer with Universiti Malaysia Sabah (MS).

“There are also opinions or allegations that there still remains a strong connection between the CM and some Perikatan Nasional leaders at the federal level.

“Such a belief may have triggered an uneasy relationship between him and the Federal Government which is also not interested in the Borneo bloc agenda,” Romzi said.

Hajiji has on numerous occasions dismissed any “lingering” relations with his former Bersatu colleagues in Perikatan led by Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.

Furthermore, Romzi said Gagasan Rakyat’s strength came from political crossovers which raises the question of the state government’s legitimacy.

Romzi opined that Hajiji might be feeling “uneasy” and could possibly call for a snap election in the first quarter of 2024 or by October ahead of the ending of the term of Yang DiPertua Negeri Tun Juhar Mahiruddin on Dec 31, 2024.

“The snap election can be after October next year but if pressure mounts it could be held before or after Hari Raya Puasa in April,” Romzi added.

Another political observer Tony Paridi Bagang said that Hajiji might want to capitalise on the stronger position that Gagasan Rakyat and GRS holds at the moment to call for a snap election.

“The Gagasan Rakyat has emerged as a significant influence within the GRS coalition, garnering local support and assuming governance at the state level.

“Capitalising on the prevalent positive sentiments towards both Gagasan Rakyat and the GRS is strategic and imperative at this juncture.

“It underscores the necessity to reaffirm the public mandate for the GRS government, countering any efforts to destabilise the present administration,” he said.

GRS is backed by Sabah Pakatan Harapan, some renegade Sabah Umno assemblymen, Sabah PAS and currently holds a two-thirds majority in the 79-member assembly.

Both Warisan and Sabah Umno, who have lost assemblymen to defections, are working together with Parti KDM led by Datuk Peter Anthony.

Though they have yet to announce a formal electoral pact, both Shafie and Bung have not discounted the possibility of working together to take on GRS.

It is still not clear if the four-party Sabah Pakatan will remain with GRS in the event of a snap election, though Hajiji has publicly said several times that his alliance is willing to continue working with the former.

All Sabah parties are supporting the Federal-level unity government.

However, at the Sabah level, Warisan has stated that they will remain in the opposition while Bung and his Umno supporters have stayed out of Hajiji’s administration after they failed to unseat the Chief Minister.

Yesterday, Bung reiterated that Sabah Umno was prepared for a snap election.