Deterrence unscripted: What the Iran–Israel escalation really revealed

FROM the outside, the latest Iran–Israel escalation looked like a tightly controlled spectacle—one more episode in the long tradition of geopolitical theatre. Symbolic strikes. Calibrated optics. Narratives exchanged more than missiles. But something disrupted the performance. Someone, somewhere inside Iran, broke the script.

All signs point to the conflict being originally designed as a limited, performative escalation, meant to simulate confrontation while avoiding real strategic consequences. Israel’s opening salvo was telling: a high-visibility strike on Iran’s state broadcaster (IRIB), carried out during a live news segment but without catastrophic loss of life. A communication centre, yes, but also a deeply symbolic, civilian-facing target.