Heated race: (From left) Ganjar, Prabowo and Anies holding hands as they pose for photographers after the first presidential candidates’ debate in Jakarta. — AP
ABOUT 202 million voters in Indonesia, the third most populous electoral democracy in the world, go to the polls today.
Indonesians from Sabang in Aceh to Maurake in Papua, which spans 5,245km (imagine flying from Jakarta to Seoul), will coblos (punch the ballot paper) for a president and 575 members of the legislature (MPs).
The streets are cleared of signs of an election in Bandung and Jakarta, which I visited during my political tourism trip to the fourth most populated country in the world and 10th largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity.
The 75-day campaigning started in November last year, and a three-day cooling period began on Sunday. Authorities have removed campaign flags, banners, posters and billboards throughout the country.
Two-term president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, 62, ends his presidency in October 2024. The country’s Constitution bars the politician, who was elected president in 2014, from running for a third time.
On Valentine’s Day, three presidential candidates will find out who among them Indonesians love the most. The candidates, in order on the ballot papers, are former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, 54, Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, 72, and former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo, 55.
Will it be satu putaran (one round of the presidential election)?
To be elected president, a candidate needs more than 50% of the votes cast and at least 20% of the vote in each province.
If there is no clear winner in the three-cornered contest, a run-off election between the two candidates with the most votes will be held on June 26.
Prabowo is the frontrunner. According to various polls, he is so close yet so far from winning the election.
However, the latest polls on Saturday showed that he has passed the 50% plus mark.
Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI) survey found that the Defence Minister has a 51.9% lead against Anies (23.3%) and Ganjar (20.3%).
“This is just a survey,” LSI executive director Djayadi Hanan insisted.
Indikator Politik Indonesia polling revealed that Prabowo could pass the one-round threshold with 51.8% of votes, followed by Anies (24.1%) and Ganjar (19.6%).
Some Indonesian political watchers find the surveys too optimistic for Prabowo. They predict Prabowo won’t win enough hearts to be president on Valentine’s Day.
“Prabowo is only getting half of the votes he got against Jokowi in the 2019 presidential election, as his core voters – conservative Muslims – have abandoned him for Anies.
“Prabowo can only get half of the Jokowi votes. Let’s see if these votes are enough to make him president,” an Indonesian political analyst told me.
While President Jokowi maintains that he is neutral in the presidential race, he has orchestrated political optics with Prabowo to signal to the public that the latter has his support.
For example, Jokowi had dinner with Prabowo at a restaurant in Jakarta on Jan 5.
Another example is when the president and his Defence Minister lunched at a warung bakso (meatball stall) by the roadside at Magelang, Central Java, on Jan 29.
With a more than 70% approval rating, the president has not had a one-on-one dinner with Ganjar or Anies.
“Jokowi has cawe cawe (Javanese phrase for interfere) in the presidential election,” the political analyst further told me.
It would be difficult not to believe that Jokowi cawe cawe in order for Prabowo to replace him as president. Prabowo’s running mate is Solo Mayor Gibran Rakabuming Raka, 36, who is Jokowi’s eldest son.
The irony is that Prabowo bitterly contested against Jokowi twice – in 2014 and 2019 – for the presidency.
So, what’s at stake this time? For the president, it would be continuing the Jokowi legacy, which includes his Nusantara capital relocation project, and about his son Gibran.
For Prabowo, this is his third time running for president. He has rebranded himself as Jokowi 3.0 as he has promised to continue Jokowi’s policies, such as moving the Indonesian capital to the island of Borneo.
Anies is running as the candidate for change. He has declared that if elected, he will not continue the development of Jokowi’s pet project, Nusantara.
Hitching on Jokowi’s popularity, Ganjar has vowed to continue the president’s programmes if he wins the election.
If there is no winner in the Valentine’s Day polling, the final round of the presidential election in June will be brutal.
It could shape up to be Jokowi’s legacy vs Jokowi’s cawe cawe. More of the voters are fed up of hearing about Jokowi’s political dynasty.
But if the polls are to be believed, Prabowo will win in satu putaran.
