IT IS the final week of Ramadan. Millions are heading to their kampung to celebrate Hari Raya Aidilfitri and still get to enjoy filling up their car tank with the subsidised RON95 petrol – at least until May.
On social media some people are questioning the rationale for telling all government agencies against holding their Raya open house this year. Some argued what is there to stop them from holding their own since the funds come from their pockets. Perhaps those who are only interested in what is happening in their own backyard are missing out what is happening globally; and how events in the Middle East will affect their lifestyle.
They will learn soon enough, if they haven’t already.
This week marks the third week of the United States and Israel attacks on Iran. There is no sign of the war ending anytime soon with a defiant new Iranian leader appointed. The impacts are great and far reaching.
As the conflict continues we are seeing what can be expected, it is already affecting the global oil price. That means the global economy, including Malaysia, is affected. This is especially true because Malaysia is a trading nation. Inflationary pressure will kick in, making everything more expensive including travel, logistics and insurance. Some airlines have announced higher airfares and fuel surcharge following oil price increase. And that is just the economy.
More worrying is that the war is happening in a turbulent region, creating dangerous repercussions for politics and security. The potential of the impacts reverberating all over the world is real.
The blow brought by the attacks against Iran by US President Donald Trump, goaded by Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has resulted in the rest in the Gulf being dragged into this war.
The BBC reported that Iran has continued to respond by launching attacks on Israel and US-allied states in the Gulf, which have extended to non-military targets, including civilian sites and energy facilities. The fighting has escalated quickly, spreading to Lebanon, with casualties and damage mounting on all sides. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz described the first strikes on Feb 28 as a “pre-emptive strike” to “remove threats against the state of Israel”, although he did not explain why there was a need to take military action at this time, reported the BBC.
A diplomat said the attacks have serious domestic repercussions for the region.
“This is really dangerous. So far while the Gulf countries are not happy with missiles raining down in their territories, they have only intercepted but not retaliated the attacks.
“How long will this last? If the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Countries) members decided that they must retaliate, it would lead to a dangerous escalation, one which can easily spiral out of control and difficult for them to step back from,” he said.
The diplomat cautioned that the war could very likely invoke the anger of Muslims worldwide. Thus, there is real concern of asymmetric security risks. It can result in growing radicalisation and retaliation, citing post 9/11 scenario and the creation of terror groups and cells.
What is happening now is what Israel wanted, said a foreign affairs observer. After the regime launched the attacks, it must know Iran would retaliate and the US bases in the region are vulnerable targets. Attacking US bases in the Gulf has definitely put the GCC members “between a rock and a hard place”.
“It was exactly the reason why the Gulf countries tried hard to convince the US not to attack Iran, and put so much efforts in mediation.
“Israel must have already calculated the repercussions. A regional conflict pitting Iran against its Arab neighbours would only benefit Israel, and no one else. That must be Israel’s strategy. It is not about “regime” change but it is about destablising the whole region, so that Israel could easily impose its hegemony.”
“So Israel basically is manipulating others to fight a war on their behalf. As missiles continue to fall into the territories of the Gulf countries, some hitting civilian and essential infrastructures like ports, oil refineries and water salination plants, the GCC members must do something to show their outrage but how far would they go?” said the observer.
Will the war deescalate? To make a reasonable assessment, one must understand the objective of the war.
“Without understanding the motivation, it is very difficult to predict the extent that the perpetrators (the US and Israel) would act.
“We must understand what are they trying to achieve and that is very difficult because so far at least officially its stated objectives have been shifting over time, sometimes contradictory and very ambiguous,” said the above diplomat.
How long will Trump pursue this war or is just a diversion from the Epstein file issue because if this is so he will have to find an exit strategy especially when the bodies of American soldiers started to pile up.
For us in Malaysia, we need to be mindful of what is to come in the next few weeks and months especially the economy and security. Surely the government has some mitigating plan especially if oil prices remain high.
Nobody can predict the end game in this war. Looking at the latest developments, we are in for a long haul.
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